November, Scenarios

1 Kas

In the October issue of Scenarios, we introduced two bullish scenarios — “Triangle” and “Diagonal” — which differed in the depth of their corrective moves. Ultimately, the first scenario prevailed.

Today, we see a similar setup: two bullish scenarios once again, each varying in terms of potential correction depth. To the right, the October “Triangle” suggests that either the initial growth impulse has concluded, or — in a highly favorable case — an upward extension is developing. To the left is the scenario of a completed Diagonal, though a different type than in October, originating from the 52,550 mark. This scenario anticipates a deeper correction, potentially below 59K, before growth resumes.

Currently, several market factors could favor a corrective scenario.

The BTC Fear and Greed Index has dipped slightly to 75 points; however, this is still a high level, signaling the need for correction. Additionally, sell-offs have commenced in the U.S. market, as anticipated in our “November Surprise” idea. Iran has vowed to strike Israel before the U.S. elections. Meanwhile, despite high approval ratings, Trump might face barriers to re-election, which could trigger an immediate price pullback.