Bitcoin (BTC) Short Setup at Key Daily Resistance

7 gün önce

In this analysis, you will find a clear scenario for a potential short setup with precise conditions for confirmation and invalidation. No fluff or guesswork—only institutional analysis of capital footprints and pure price action. I will provide updates for every stage of price interaction with the POI in near real-time, so you can make timely trading decisions, not just observe events after the fact.

Context: What Happened Before?

Bitcoin has perfectly played out Scenario 2 from my previous long analysis. After the liquidity sweep below, which confirmed that the instrument is locked in a large global range, it began an aggressive, correction-less rally. This is often the case after absorbing a large amount of liquidity, which essentially became the fuel for this rise.

The Short Setup

To break out of the range to the upside (or at least make a deviation above it), Bitcoin must overcome the first serious resistance zone. This zone consists of:

• The 78.6% Fibonacci level from the daily structure.
  
• Liquidity from the Previous Week's High (PWH).
  

My plan is to look for a short position if we see a reversal reaction from this zone after the liquidity is taken. The minimum target for this move would be the lower boundary of the range and the daily order block located there. This local move inside the range can be seen as a shorting opportunity.

Invalidation of the Short Scenario:
A break of the 78.6% level with the price closing firmly above it would cancel the short scenario. In that case, Bitcoin would likely continue its move towards the next resistance level.

7 gün önce

Not

Bitcoin has reached the 78.6% retracement level from the daily structure, and on the 4H timeframe, the price has even closed below it. However, the second crucial condition for a short setup has not yet been met, namely the liquidity sweep of the Previous Week's High (PWH).

After this liquidity is taken, the price must return below the level to consider opening a short position. If the price continues its upward movement without returning below the level, the setup is not yet confirmed. A second chance for it to play out will only come if the body of today's daily candle closes below the level, which we will see tomorrow.

In any case, it will become clear in the near future whether Bitcoin is going to continue its rally to the next resistance or begin a correction towards, at a minimum, the lower boundary of the global range.

6 gün önce

Not

The fact that Bitcoin reached and closed below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the daily structure without a sweep of the PWH liquidity did not serve as a trigger for an immediate move down. As a result, it has become locked in a 1-hour range.

Inside this range, something similar to a bearish order flow has begun to form, so the instrument may start its downward movement without sweeping the PWH. I am now considering two scenarios for a potential short entry:

1. If Bitcoin breaks down from the range from the current prices, a short can be considered on a retest of the range boundary upon a reversal reaction.
2. If Bitcoin does sweep the liquidity above before falling, then, as originally planned, a short can also be considered once the price returns below the 78.6% level.

evvelsi gün

Emir iptal

Bitcoin did not follow either of the scenarios from the last update. It neither broke down from the 1-hour range nor did it sweep the PWH liquidity. The rising S&P 500 dragged Bitcoin higher, and as a result, it is now locked in a new 4-hour range.

I no longer consider the 78.6% level relevant, as the price has already reacted to it. The only remaining trigger for a pullback to the lower boundary of the global range is a liquidity sweep of the June 16th high (which was last week's PWH). However, considering that this is the sole trigger for a short, and Bitcoin is in the middle of a global range and also inside a 4H range, these are very weak grounds for a potential setup for me.

I believe the probability of a rally to the upper range boundary or a decline to the lower boundary is now an equal 50/50. Personally, I will wait for further developments on this instrument. If the price starts to decline, there are POIs below (in the form of daily and 4H order blocks) for a potential long setup. If BTC goes up, a short setup could form on a deviation above the global range.

This particular setup is no longer relevant. I will publish a new analysis when the price approaches an area where another setup might form.