I sold My Car And I'm NOT Buying Bitcoin!
Güncellendi
My wife just got a new job and we now have a company car! There's no point in keeping our car, because it's a deprecating asset. However, as much as i want to buy more Bitcoin with this cash, i'm just not buying now and here's why;
If you look at the downward channel, you'll see that the last time price went above, ended up with a mark down. It's way too risky to buy here right now. This is a bull trap at it's best.
So, let's review my bullish case;
1- Break the triangle (and make sure it's not a bull trap)
2- Break 37k
3- Break
41K
Even if the triangle looks like being violated, it just means it's in the overbought territory. Whenever i bought the overbought condition, i lost. Instead, i'll assume this violation is a bull trap and wait for the next oversold condition which is below 22k! That's 35% down from current price and once it reaches there with a climactic action, it won't stop until everyone believes Bitcoin is dead.
Why have a nightmare?
So, here's the scenario i'm buying;
Given we are in redistribution, not accumulation;
1- This current moment is last point of supply (LPSY)
2- Markdown will follow down to December 2020 lows at $17.500
3- Start sideways accumulation verified with net buying activity on the volume profile
4- The spring event occurs and verifies with change of character, stong volume
5- I buy (Else, i wait for another drop)
6- Price rallies to 80k in November
7- Evaluate sideways action whether it's distribution or re-accumulation.
8- Sell with 4x profit if it's redistribution, else ride until 100k and above!
Why 80k? Read my recent analysis:
Ofcourse it's too early to give price target, we will need to calculate the horizontal count during the real accumulation and adjust our estimation, but so far this is what i can say.
Until then friends, i'm sitting on cash enjoying stable daily interest.
DON'T FOMO, you can always buy later.
If you look at the downward channel, you'll see that the last time price went above, ended up with a mark down. It's way too risky to buy here right now. This is a bull trap at it's best.
So, let's review my bullish case;
1- Break the triangle (and make sure it's not a bull trap)
2- Break 37k
3- Break
41KEven if the triangle looks like being violated, it just means it's in the overbought territory. Whenever i bought the overbought condition, i lost. Instead, i'll assume this violation is a bull trap and wait for the next oversold condition which is below 22k! That's 35% down from current price and once it reaches there with a climactic action, it won't stop until everyone believes Bitcoin is dead.
Why have a nightmare?
So, here's the scenario i'm buying;
Given we are in redistribution, not accumulation;
1- This current moment is last point of supply (LPSY)
2- Markdown will follow down to December 2020 lows at $17.500
3- Start sideways accumulation verified with net buying activity on the volume profile
4- The spring event occurs and verifies with change of character, stong volume
5- I buy (Else, i wait for another drop)
6- Price rallies to 80k in November
7- Evaluate sideways action whether it's distribution or re-accumulation.
8- Sell with 4x profit if it's redistribution, else ride until 100k and above!
Why 80k? Read my recent analysis:
Ofcourse it's too early to give price target, we will need to calculate the horizontal count during the real accumulation and adjust our estimation, but so far this is what i can say.
Until then friends, i'm sitting on cash enjoying stable daily interest.
DON'T FOMO, you can always buy later.
Not
Looks like 16k is playing out 
Not
Buying this month! Point of No Return 
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