Coming into 2022, the sentiment is extremely bearish and of course - it can stay like that for a very long time. The problem is, context doesn't show BTC should be slowing down, so it seems probable BTC reaches extremes of its trend right now. I am also posting bearish scenario separately, but I do think this one is the likeliest outcome of all.
What is crucial for bullish plan to be triggered - is January close above 43,8k. WIthout that, I will switch towards bearish scenario (which is mostly ranging during next 12 months).
IF we handle to close Jan. above 43k, there will be a very quick expansion with an ultimate target of 58-61k - that is utested resistance and will be sooner or later filled anyways. Afterwards, I do not think the expansion could go any further than that in a straight line. So for traders, short 60k is a must - and for holders it will be important ho hedge. BTC should range for several months afterwars - a lot of people will call for bear market again and we could even reach towards 43,8k again (yeah, very important level). This will be very hard period to handle - but not with shorts from 60k ofc . Just don't get trapped in a range. Stay with the plan.
Because after this range gets finished, there should be another expansion towards bullish targets - technically we should reach 75-85k. I can imagine in extreme even reaching 100k mark.
I do think this will be the cycle top and we should look for our hedge short positions accordingly around these levels - after a structure breakout to the downside.
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