Capitulation soon

Where do I start? Since the beginning of this bear market, I have observed every single leg down. And we reached a price level (17k), where one could argue that this is the bottom. And for a good reason. The pattern for a lower low during summer got invalidated, lots of blood on the streets, so called ''tourists'' gone from the market, oversold metrics etc etc. What we got is accumulation between $18-25k.

We could potentially say that accumulating around our low is not necessarily bad, but I'll shift this monologue towards the real economy. The real world. It's ugly guys. It's super duper ugly. Last couple of days have made it clear to me that this can't be the bottom. Too much pressure all over the board. Check FX, check bonds, check macro, check geopolitics. Something must break real soon. Presure is not sustainable and cannot be absorbed for much longer. Central banks must kill the economies and protect them at the same time.

The BOE is a brilliant example. They stopped purchasing bonds, til they realised that their pension funds are about to get wrecked. They changed their policy in a day with a direct market intervention. Mind here, that inflation ranges between 10-12% in the UK. This hurts the reliability of policymakers, but at the same time, there is literally nothing else to do. Other CBs will follow in this panic mode. Japan is already there.

The reason I'm writing these events is because in my eyes, there is nothing bullish to boost markets. Anytime soon. Risk is huge, and reward seems at question.

As you can see in the chart I've been observing since December 2021, CMF has been my ''friend indicator'' during this downtrend. Along with some very basic technicals, nothing too complicated. What does CMF tell me now? Leg down. If this gets triggered by a credit event, I don't know. If it does, I'm afraid lots of what we've taken for granted will be questioned. It will be ugly, and I'm not even sure about how the market will look like after this. I would bid around $10-13k, and pray this is it.

Lastly, one thing you shouldn't forget is that crypto has never been through a bear market in equities, a recession in global economies, and most worryingly a market collapse equivalent to or maybe worse than the financial crisis in 2008. Stay safe. I'm out. I hope I'm wrong.