20/01/25 Weekly outlook

20 Oca

Last weeks high: $106,467.97
Last weeks low: $89,292.15
Midpoint: $97,880.06

The Trump era begins...

January 20th 2025 is the date in which America sees its new Republican administration take office. An administration that has promised to embrace crypto instead of demonise it, one that wants the future of crypto to be built in the US, so far Trumps picks for SEC chairman and other important related roles have reflected that pro-crypto belief.

However, launching a TRUMP memecoin and the subsequent MELANIA memecoins just moments before inauguration in my opinion is a very bad start. Not only did the launch of TRUMP draw out liquidity from the altcoin market, it also damages the broader market just from an optics point of view. The general publics perception of crypto is it's full of scams, pump and dumps etc so to try and change the general publics mind the answer is to... Launch a memecoin...
Now I'm fully aware Donald Trump himself probably has very little to do with this, just like most celebrity memecoins but I just don't see how this is a positive start for the administration in proving their pro-crypto stance.

Bitcoin did have its highest weekly close of all time @ $106,500, which was $2000 higher than the previous ATH. +20% move from weekly low to high in anticipation for the potential Bitcoin strategic reserve announcement. Avoiding a SFP similar to that of week commencing January 6th will be a priority for BTC, we are in a rangebound environment so a SFP can have the potential to drop back down and undo a lot of the previous weeks progress. Until BTC breaks the rangebound environment and begins a trending move I will treat it as such.

For this week I'm keeping a close eye on the Liberty Financial portfolio (ETH,AAVE,LINK,ONDO,ENS) & US based majors (SOL,SUI,AVAX, ADA, STX,INJ) etc. The play is definitely coins that will be directly influenced by this new US administration, at least for now I cannot see any liquidity go towards any other coins for the time being.

20 Oca

Not

Something to add is Wall street is closed today for MLK day, so there may be a lag/delay in reaction to announcements made or executive orders signed today.

21 Oca

Not

Weekly high is a key level, pre-market looks strong so I expect a retest but what happens at that level is uncertain.

Rejection may confirm a SFP in which midpoint is the target
A reclaim would give the bulls an opportunity to break the rangebound environment and get a bullish trend going. That would finally drag alts out of the slump they've been in too.

21 Oca

Not

Volatility as expected on Wall Streets return to trading in this new administration.
A strong Tradfi pre-market resulting in a bearish opening bell for BTC (LTF not HTF) perhaps suggesting some liquidity and focus is being directed towards traditional markets for now. This would make sense as no executive orders have covered cryptocurrency as of yet.
This is by no means bearish overall we just may need to be patient and wait for a trigger to get things going.

21 Oca

Not

Back above weekly high after bouncing from 0.75

Very important daily close coming up to see if the weekly high can be flipped as new support or stay as resistance.

22 Oca

Not

Bitcoin spot ETF had a total net inflow of $802 million yesterday, despite that a close under the weekly high therefor has me cautious. This is in addition to Saylor adding another 11,000BTC (~1.1B) to their stockpile, if that isn't enough to breakout perhaps Bitcoin isn't ready to yet?

On the other hand Ross Ulbright of silk road has been pardoned and Brian Armstrong of Coinbase has reiterated excitement for the "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve".

So as it stands Bitcoin has a lot of positive forces behind it yet struggling to breakout of the range and into a sustained trend. For me this is a no trade zone until price is either at Midpoint or flipped weekly high, then I will become interested.