We have entered a small trading zone at previous high which is expected as profit taking is occurring.
Looking at the previous top will give us some clues. The FEB top was a quick distribution into a shakeout creating the liquidity for larger players to enter. Remember - distribution are generally quick and volatile whereas accumulation are slow with and time consuming with decreasing volatility.
I have listed two scenarios here with neither more viable at this stage. I think overall we go higher after the prolonged re-accumulation we just had.
Confirmations of bullish behaviour: *Supportive price at lower part of TR *Decreasing volatility *Relative long time in range *Testing event at support with strong recovery and subsequent support in the TR *Successful break of resistance with volume and support above resistance line
Confirmations of bearish *Break down to 55K with no recovery in the TR *No support volume on the break to 55K *A break below support - retest to previous support and rejection *Quick time in range like in FEB
Its wait and see at the moment.
Remember you are looking to confirm bias which indicates who is winning; buyers or sellers. At the moment the short term bias is up; so we are looking to confirm each step. If we have a deviation from what we would see in a bullish bias it should alert us as a potential change in market conditions and we can begin to craft a trade in that direction.
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