BTC short should be secured @ profit for safe play

2 Şub

📊 1H Chart Analysis – Short-Term Trends
🔹 Price Action: BTC is currently trading around $98,780, approaching the bottom of the Linear Regression (LR) channel.
🔹 Indicators & Signals:

Short signals triggered earlier have played out, leading to a price drop.
No fresh long signals yet—this could indicate a lack of buyer interest.
Stochastic RSI is oversold, signaling potential exhaustion of the downtrend.
Bollinger Bands: Price is near the lower band, suggesting that late sellers might get liquidated soon.
Volume: Selling pressure has been consistent, but volume is decreasing—a sign of possible exhaustion.
📌 Conclusion for 1H Chart
👉 Since we are near the bottom of the LR channel, entering new shorts right now is risky as late sellers could get wiped out. Instead, setting a trailing stop-loss at profit for open shorts is a safer play.

📊 1D Chart Analysis – Higher Timeframe Context
🔹 Price Action:

The short signal on the daily played out, causing a market drop.
Price is testing support levels—$100,465 (previous long entry) and $100,576 (previous key level) were breached.
Potential support at $96,977-$94,278 (SLL & lower LR channel).
🔹 Indicators & Signals:

Short signal played out well, but no new long signal yet.
Stochastic RSI is curling downward, meaning there's still room for further downside.
Bollinger Bands: The price is sitting on the mid-range, meaning volatility can still pick a side.
Volume: There was strong selling volume, but participation seems to be declining.
📌 Conclusion for 1D Chart
👉 Since price already moved down after the short signal, blindly entering new shorts here is dangerous.
👉 Best approach: If shorting, use SL at profit and be ready to adjust.
👉 No clear long signs yet, but that could change as liquidity drains and fewer market participants remain—possibly giving a high-RR opportunity for early longs.

🔮 Next Market Move Probability
Scenario Probability Explanation
📉 Further Drop (Testing $96,977) 65% The momentum is still bearish, and no fresh long signals appeared yet.
📈 Short Squeeze Bounce 30% Late shorts may get liquidated near $97,000-$95,000, causing a quick rebound.
🚀 Strong Reversal 5% Not likely until a clear long setup appears.
📌 Strategic Plan
Shorts: ✅ Keep SL at profit. Do not open fresh shorts at bottom LR channel.
Longs: ❌ Not yet, but watch for liquidity sweeps below $97,000—could present an opportunity.
Neutral traders: 🚀 Wait for confirmation before entering either direction.
⚠️ Key Levels to Watch
Supports: 📉 $96,977, $94,278
Resistances: 📈 $100,576, $102,569, $105,404
Major Liquidation Level (SLL): ⚡ $96,977


👀 Final Takeaway
🔹 Market dropped after the BitcoinMF PRO daily short signal—it worked well.
🔹 Late sellers might get cleared soon, making fresh shorts dangerous.
🔹 Using a trailing SL for profit protection is the safest move.
🔹 No new long signals yet, but low participation could lead to a sneaky long opportunity soon.

Would I short here? No—too late. Would I long? Well, I’m not gonna lie... I might. But it’s dangerous to go against the indicator.

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#BTCUSD #XBT #BTCUSD #BItcoin

3 Şub

İşlem aktif

Short hit first target and bottom LR channel.
Many liquidation occured in 91-93k area.
Relief bounce might come but the Fisher hasnt yet turned bullish. hich means that if bullsodntt defand we also might see 80k area.
for now short should be secured @ profit.
longing is risky but might worth it in case price does manage to stay within thhe LR daily channel