Deeper Retrace if previous monthly high and VAH are lost

25 May

BTC has made a strong move up recently, but we’re now trading just above key contextual levels that could act as a tipping point if lost. Do we look for a failed auction?

🧭 Key Levels on Watch:
• PW/MHIGH (Previous Week and Month High): ~109,988
• VAH (Value Area High): ~105,573
• POC (Point of Control): ~96,815
• VAL (Value Area Low): ~87,198
• Anchored VWAP from the April low is rising steadily and currently converging with the POC.

🔍 What to Watch For:
We’ve wicked above the monthly high and are now showing signs of stalling. If BTC fails to hold above the VAH (~105.5k), it would suggest acceptance back inside the prior value area. This could open the door for a rotation lower toward the POC (~96.8k) — the area with the highest historical volume and strong structural support.

🟢 Anchored VWAP Support
The anchored VWAP from the April low continues to rise and is on a collision course with the POC. This area could become a magnet for price, offering confluence for a potential bounce or reaccumulation zone.

⚠️ Scenario Outlook:
• Lose PW/MHIGH → Caution
• Lose VAH and hold below → Expect rotation to POC
• VWAP + POC convergence could be a key buy zone if tested

This is a classic example of auction market theory in action: acceptance back into value often leads to a revisit of the point of control.

25 May

İşlem aktif

On a closer look, we have made a new Daily Order Block and the anchored vwap from the high is lining up pretty nicely there too.
I'll be keeping half an eye on a retrace to that area, whether it's from the local SFP (swing failure pattern) or a bounce from the VAH, it's worth monitoring and looking for a reason to short if it presents itself.