"the bear-ish case".
good morning my peoples.
i've analyzed this count in twenty different ways, and i've narrowed it down to two.
i wanted to share the two trajectories which currently hold the highest probability in my honest professional opinion.
(view next post for case #2).
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the first case is called "the miner + hashrate capitulation event".
in the recent years, each major low has been greeted with miner + hash-rate capitulation, as displayed down below:
we are currently entering an area in the market which is putting significant pressure on the bitcoin miners.
if the price goes any lower than 17.6k, a lot of miners will be forced to shut down their operations, and potentially begin to liquidate some of their assets to continue being able to pay for their operations.
if i'm not mistaken, it roughly costs 17.6k to mine one btc, so if btc goes below this number - miners would technically be losing money per btc mined (in electricity costs, etc).
most of the cycle lows have challenged the miners, and just about every time, we have seen them capitulate which caused an accelerated move to the downside.
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is this time different?
nope. if anything, this time there's more miners than ever before in history,
so if btc so chooses to go down this path (which i think is inevitable, it's more a matter of when, rather than if) - then i think we're going to see one hell of a capitulation event.
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the target for this particular scenario = 10k.
though, corrections come in three waves - so this would only be the first wave.
i've shared my primary macro outlook in a recent video, this is the count for it:
i've analyzed this count in twenty different ways, and i've narrowed it down to two.
i wanted to share the two trajectories which currently hold the highest probability in my honest professional opinion.
(view next post for case #2).
----
the first case is called "the miner + hashrate capitulation event".
in the recent years, each major low has been greeted with miner + hash-rate capitulation, as displayed down below:
we are currently entering an area in the market which is putting significant pressure on the bitcoin miners.
if the price goes any lower than 17.6k, a lot of miners will be forced to shut down their operations, and potentially begin to liquidate some of their assets to continue being able to pay for their operations.
if i'm not mistaken, it roughly costs 17.6k to mine one btc, so if btc goes below this number - miners would technically be losing money per btc mined (in electricity costs, etc).
most of the cycle lows have challenged the miners, and just about every time, we have seen them capitulate which caused an accelerated move to the downside.
----
is this time different?
nope. if anything, this time there's more miners than ever before in history,
so if btc so chooses to go down this path (which i think is inevitable, it's more a matter of when, rather than if) - then i think we're going to see one hell of a capitulation event.
----
the target for this particular scenario = 10k.
though, corrections come in three waves - so this would only be the first wave.
i've shared my primary macro outlook in a recent video, this is the count for it:
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.