Bitcoin Weekly Review September 8th - 14th
TLDR:
My base case is that next week, Bitcoin will make another LL. I expect volatility and at least one shakeout. Ultimately, Bitcoin will reach a low between 47K – 49K.
After making the low, bitcoin will begin a relief rally, lasting until after the Fed meeting on September 17th. My analysis of Bitcoin’s reaction to the previous rate cut in 2020 points to a temporary relief rally and a resumption of the downtrend. However, this rally can be savage and even go beyond the previous high of 65K.
If I am correct, next week will be extremely difficult to trade. My best bet is to wait for 49K to get hit and buy with low leverage or wait for a trend reversal confirmation.
I realize I strayed from the conventional interpretation of a corrective WXYZ. Some of you were kind enough to reach out and offer your opinion. I will include these as alternative scenarios.
Bitcoin Macro Outlook:
I believe Bitcoin is in the final stages of a complex wave four correction. After This correction period, I expect a continuation in wave five to around 80K.
Where do I draw the line?
Price: A weekly close below 43.6K, which is the 0.618 of wave 3.
Time: if this correction lasts after October 2024.
Figure 1: Macro Outlook.
Figure 2: Bitcoin Correction Price & Time Limits.
Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook:
The selling pressure on Bitcoin is close to exhaustion. However, I still expect the price to make an LL next week.
I outlined the path the price will take. “No plan survives first contact with the enemy” (Helmuth von Moltke). The vital part of the plan is for the price to make a double-bottom scenario at around 49K. Invalidation is next.
Figure 3: Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook.
Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook Invalidation:
Bitcoin holds the trendline and advances in a triangle breakout.
This scenario is less likely for two reasons:
1. Because of the violation of the Gann Angle (2/1).
2. The daily wick from August 5th has yet to be filled.
Figure 4: Bitcoin Short-Term Invalidation.
Figure 5: Gann Angles & Wick Fill.
Time Over Price:
Gann believed that "Time is the most important factor of all." He argued that when sufficient time has elapsed, it could overbalance price, leading to a change in market trends.
My premise is that we are due for a short relief rally after next week. Whatever happens after September 14th, I will look for long trades.
Best Wishes
My base case is that next week, Bitcoin will make another LL. I expect volatility and at least one shakeout. Ultimately, Bitcoin will reach a low between 47K – 49K.
After making the low, bitcoin will begin a relief rally, lasting until after the Fed meeting on September 17th. My analysis of Bitcoin’s reaction to the previous rate cut in 2020 points to a temporary relief rally and a resumption of the downtrend. However, this rally can be savage and even go beyond the previous high of 65K.
If I am correct, next week will be extremely difficult to trade. My best bet is to wait for 49K to get hit and buy with low leverage or wait for a trend reversal confirmation.
I realize I strayed from the conventional interpretation of a corrective WXYZ. Some of you were kind enough to reach out and offer your opinion. I will include these as alternative scenarios.
Bitcoin Macro Outlook:
I believe Bitcoin is in the final stages of a complex wave four correction. After This correction period, I expect a continuation in wave five to around 80K.
Where do I draw the line?
Price: A weekly close below 43.6K, which is the 0.618 of wave 3.
Time: if this correction lasts after October 2024.
Figure 1: Macro Outlook.
Figure 2: Bitcoin Correction Price & Time Limits.
Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook:
The selling pressure on Bitcoin is close to exhaustion. However, I still expect the price to make an LL next week.
I outlined the path the price will take. “No plan survives first contact with the enemy” (Helmuth von Moltke). The vital part of the plan is for the price to make a double-bottom scenario at around 49K. Invalidation is next.
Figure 3: Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook.
Bitcoin Short-Term Outlook Invalidation:
Bitcoin holds the trendline and advances in a triangle breakout.
This scenario is less likely for two reasons:
1. Because of the violation of the Gann Angle (2/1).
2. The daily wick from August 5th has yet to be filled.
Figure 4: Bitcoin Short-Term Invalidation.
Figure 5: Gann Angles & Wick Fill.
Time Over Price:
Gann believed that "Time is the most important factor of all." He argued that when sufficient time has elapsed, it could overbalance price, leading to a change in market trends.
My premise is that we are due for a short relief rally after next week. Whatever happens after September 14th, I will look for long trades.
Best Wishes
İlgili yayınlar
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.