Going Long Bitcoin on Daily Cycle Low
I believe that the cycle low is in. Its a bit short at 45 days but since the move down was so aggressive, its not uncommon to have a short cycle. I've been taking some small trades the past few days and I had sold a long at $3700 but I thought there was a good chance we would make another move lower yesterday. Since the rally held up and we've closed an hourly over $4150, I think the low could be in so I'm in for good.
Yes, we can pause here then end up with a big move down to new lows. I'll stop out 50% if we make new lows and then look to buy back lower. Way too late in the cycle to be shorting.
My goal is to carry this long for 15-30 days but this depends on price action. I think we'll see a move to $5500 then it will stall and come back down and either make new lows in February or retest the lows. There's always a chance we just rally strong and this ends up being a major low. Right now I don't think that is the case as I think the weekly cycle needs another daily cycle to finish, but cycle counts can be wrong.
I have bought back part of the position that I sold near the top. This is my first long term long position since early 2017.
I announced that I was starting to move to long term holdings to cash in this post -- on Nov 29, 2017
The price was around 10k and it took me 2 months before I was fully cash on my long term investment. I always buy and sell long term position multiple times over months to get an average price. The highest I sold was 17k. Just the same, it will take me months to buy back my position.
I sold my last tranche at
13K on 1-20-2018 and that was the first time I shorted bitcoin ever
You can see my target was $7500. We hit $6000 just 4 weeks later.
This is also a good one. Worth reading if you want to understand how markets work --
You can read my history as I generally played every bounce fairly well (but not all of them). My best year trading ever.
The reason I post this is because when I say I'm going long, its meaningful and not just some random dude on TV.
But still, if you are trading, use a damn stop and have a plan if we go lower.
Yes, we can pause here then end up with a big move down to new lows. I'll stop out 50% if we make new lows and then look to buy back lower. Way too late in the cycle to be shorting.
My goal is to carry this long for 15-30 days but this depends on price action. I think we'll see a move to $5500 then it will stall and come back down and either make new lows in February or retest the lows. There's always a chance we just rally strong and this ends up being a major low. Right now I don't think that is the case as I think the weekly cycle needs another daily cycle to finish, but cycle counts can be wrong.
I have bought back part of the position that I sold near the top. This is my first long term long position since early 2017.
I announced that I was starting to move to long term holdings to cash in this post -- on Nov 29, 2017
The price was around 10k and it took me 2 months before I was fully cash on my long term investment. I always buy and sell long term position multiple times over months to get an average price. The highest I sold was 17k. Just the same, it will take me months to buy back my position.
I sold my last tranche at
13K on 1-20-2018 and that was the first time I shorted bitcoin ever You can see my target was $7500. We hit $6000 just 4 weeks later.
This is also a good one. Worth reading if you want to understand how markets work --
You can read my history as I generally played every bounce fairly well (but not all of them). My best year trading ever.
The reason I post this is because when I say I'm going long, its meaningful and not just some random dude on TV.
But still, if you are trading, use a damn stop and have a plan if we go lower.
Not
Bitcoin is showing weakness. I'm still long. I might take another short term trade if we drop a bit lower. But my stops are at or near the low. I have some a little lower in case we get a quick plunge to new lows that quickly recovers, but if we close to a new low I will cover and wait. If we make new lows, it opens up the door for trend continuation and possibly a capitulation move. I do not want to stay in this position if we start making new low. We could easily go on a 4-5 day trend down much lower and still have a valid cycle low. Maybe thats $2500, $2000, even $1200 is a legit target if panic sets in. So if we break lows, get out and then be patient and wait for support to form or get a strong reversal. Even if you have to rebuy higher. That is OK. The key is not losing a lot of capital if the market wants to dump.
Not
On my swing trade, I have a partial stop below today's low at $3580. We had some good buying there but if we lose that level again I will get out. I have another stop at $3350 in case we get a wick. I believe that when we reverse it could be a squeeze, so I don't want to get knocked out. At the same time with the weekly 200 MA, we could go down to $2500 so I won't ride that low. If I'm stopped out, I will wait for a reversal to buy back. It might be a case where I have to buy higher or if we get a giant squeeze I miss it. But thats risk management.
Not
Not
I'll take another long swing trade here, but a little more into ethereum. Have to watch for a quick stop run at new lows so going to give it more room but timing wise, its ideal and there is a set up here that reminds me of shorting $11700 where we ran out of buyers and just rushed down. I think we are going to run out of sellers and have a big move.
So those green lines. A lot of people are going to stack short stops over that stairstep down. And if you run out of sellers then we have a pop. We almost had it pop but didn't quite make it. But that broke a little resistance. The next time we pop if we start to breach those stops it can cause a chain reaction and take us up. I'll have some sell orders up there too.
No guarantee, but I've seen this happen with similar structure.
Not
Traders have a tendency to short at lows. On crypto twitter all I'm hearings is that we are in a bear market so keep shorting, short rallies. And you can see that there are a lot of shorts in the money that shorted all the humps.
I normally parrot the same thing and I've been saying to short rallies for 9 months. But, there is one problem.
People in shorts have to buy to make a profit. And you have a lot of people in a juicy profit right now waiting to sell at $3000, $2500, $1800. But at some point, after massive selling, you start running out of sellers. And people start itching to take profit. The longer we sit here at lows, the more chance you get smart money accumulating and setting up a squeeze. They start to cover their long term shorts slowly and unsuspecting. They may still have to go lower but there are signs that this can turn. I believe when it turns, it will be fast.
Not
I believe we will see the same set up here and move to higher. I actually think this will resemble April more than the others.
I expect smart money will set up more structures between $3200 and $3600. And yes, they may go after liquidity at $3000 if needed. But when they bust through I think it goes up fast.
This assumes we just keep trading this way and price action doesn't change. We keep seeing these spikes up. I believe they are probing to get rid of sellers. So I expect more grind and there is no way to know when the market will move, but I'll keep holding my longs.
I do not believe you will get the chance for a confirmed low. I think they will move it up and won't let anyone get long that isn't accumulating here.
Like usual, I do not recommend trading this unless you have patience and can read price action and manage risk. These situations are very difficult and price action will determine how I manage risk.
Not
We have a new daily cycle low, but I'm holding my longs for now. The main reason is that this structure is just grinding down slowly. Less and less volume. In EW, it looks like an ending diagonal.
I will take some risk off if we get strong volume down. As I said, this is risky, requires patience and the ability to read price action, but so far its behaving like a market that is running out of sellers so I don't want to lose my position just yet unless I see some signs of uncontrolled panic, which still could happen.
Not
This is a very basic view of how to exit. Time and price action tells us. Its a bit tricky and these patterns don't have to play out, they are just common.
The green is just a straight impulse wave, leave you at the station and the reason I buy bottoms like this. We just squeeze every short and kill them.
The blue is a IHS at the $4400 mark and probably most likely. We will pause after big gains and build consolidation then have another move up to 5k+
The red would be a wedge. I think this is less likely due the aggressive move. But if we do get sellers here that really drive price down then we can end up struggling the next 15 days where we barely make new highs and bears are there at resistance to just drive price down. Eventually bulls get scared and its time to take profit and wait for the next daily cycle.
(During bull cycles this is so much easier. Most of the time I won't even sell bull cycles I just get in on a weekly cycle low and maybe sell 25% at day 40-45 then wait and buy it back. In order for us to go fully bullish we'd need to see a nice cycle high 40-45 days with a short 10-15 pull back then make a new high with a weekly close over $6000. I don't believe this is the most likely scenario but I'd love to see it.
Not
This is playing out as I expected. Once turning, we get a strong move, very shallow pullbacks, consistently squeezing shorts and not allowing anyone to get in.
However, we are at TD8 on daily and due to for a pause here. While I believe that we will make it over $5000, we have had a big move on one week and its still a bear market, so I lock in some profit in case we struggle in this $4200-$4400 range. If we get a pullback to $3700 or so then I'll look to buy it back. If not I'll just be patient and look at my text target in another 2 weeks or so.
I like to lock in gains because no matter what I think happens, I never know what will happen and when you make this kind of gain this fast, it usually pays off to take the gains. Its also good for your mental health. To know you made a good trade and reward yourself.
Not
In the last post I took profit at $4200 on part of my position. I had another sell order that didn't hit at $4400. But now are in the buy zone, so I bought back 50% of my position last night, front running the 50%. I have another order a bit lower at $3600. I have hard stops at $3400. I started another small leveraged position but I have bigger orders at lower prices.
I want to see buyers step in and start to buy this up then roll it back up to
4K area. If we just keep grinding down and breaking the small ranges then I will get concerned. I don't want to stay under $3800 for more than a few days. And coming back to test lows is a bad sign. I believe we will rally but if price action says its a weak then we can't be stubborn. We take our stop and wait. If we stack up 3-4 red candles then that is a bad sign and we want to get out and wait.
Not
Meant to say I front ran the 50% fib line.Not
I do not think this will happen but part of trading is preparing for all scenarios. So what happens if we retest lows? To me, that means we are weak and just setting up another range break down.
Don't trade off this. Its just a view of possibilities if price action doesn't take a bullish path.
Not
I'm buying back the full position I sold and adding a new leveraged long. I want to see this area hold. Otherwise, I will start selling longs a bit at a time. If we trade under $3400 then I believe the risk of cycle failure or cycle topped already becomes too high to stay in long positions.
Look at my last chart. A drop from $4200 to $3400 without much of a bounce would be a sign of weakness. That would take $4500-$5500 off the table for me and becomes too risky to keep longs. I would start looking for us to just chop around for a bit and eventually go lower into the next daily cycle low. I would be more inclined to short any rallies.
I really think the next 4 days are critical. We are going into end of week, end of year, end of month. If we close those candles near lows, that will not be good. This would be a sign that we keep going lower into the February cycle. If we find support here and can close over $4000 then I'll be looking for 5k+. I'm long because I think its more likely we hold, but I'm not going to stubbornly hold it if buyers don't show up here.
Not
This is really shitty price action to fade into the close and post a nasty candle. We wanted to see a pullback, good buying and trend higher. In this case $3800 is now heavy resistance and the move failed quite easily.
So I will take off most of my long trade. Maybe it recovers, but in a bear market, you have to listen to the market and its just not showing the strength I want to see for a 20-30 day bull. I'm not shorting either here. Just going to close in profit and take off the leverage trade I got at $3680 and wait.
Not
Looks like we got some kind of saturday low volume bart move last night that was nothing but bullshit. Thats the bad part about these markets. Since it didn't make sense, I got out. But now that we recovered $3800 I'm going to work on rebuilding a leveraged long here one more time with a stop at $3700.
I'm still using a smaller position for this and look to cover and get short later next week.
Not
Just consolidating. Creating another inside day bar so at this point, we will break one way or the other. I still have longs but I start getting out after $3650 and lower close and I'll be on the sidelines. We break over $3900 and I might add a position long and look for a trend up this week.
Timing wise, its day 16. Been consolidating for 8 days so if we can't start new a trend soon then thats just a sign that another move up is not likely.
Not
Its day 19. I'm still holding longs, but looking to break that triangle. If it breaks lower I will get out and be done with longs on the cycle. I may even take a small short if we fall below $3600. I still think we break up but getting late in the cycle, so if we break up, I will be fairly aggressive about taking profits.
Ideal scenario would be a quick move to $4100 area then a few days to digest and another move up to 4500 to form an ABC to end this correction up and give us a daily cycle high.
Being at $4500 around day 25 would set up a nice time and price area to start building a short position.
Not
I'm still holding onto my long position but time is becoming an important factor.
As we can see, this market has been choppy and going nowhere for the last week. This isn't a good sign, but I can accept this price action since it occurred during the holidays. But now that we are into January, I want to some volume and conviction if we are going to get a move up. and want to the last leg of this trend move up. The last 2 days have been encouraging and its not a surprise that we cool off today and consolidate.
But we need to find buyers here above $3700 and get back towards the highs and break through it. I really want to see us close above $3800 and prove that this is just a consolidation dip before we break up.
If we start trading below $3700 I will start to take profit. If we close below yesterday's low I will be concerned and closing below the green channel and I close more positions.
4 hour closes are more important than price. We keep seeing these long wicks and stop runs so I hesitate to put stops in place. I will close more and may potentially go flat if we start trading under $3600. Its way too late to ride this down to $3300.
I won't look to short quite yet, but if I go flat, I'll be looking for a short entry in coming days.
Not
Day 20 so we are in the timing band for a high. And we now have 2 days of bearish price action. We are at support, so either we see buyers step in and move up this weekend or we just run out of buyers and drop out of this range. 9 days up with 11 days consolidation is more of a bearish sign.
The weakness and time makes me cautious. I've been patient but not seeing the type of price action that gives me confidence. This big mess of a consolidation can break either way. Don't like that we closed near lows. Don't like that we had a small rally but it ran out quickly. Longer consolidation in a bear market and we are getting close to half cycle.
So I'm taking a conservative approach and closing half of my longs and my leveraged long. I will continue to stop out if we go lower. All my stops are in profit. I do not see a good place to short so I'll just be patient and see what develops.
This late in cycle it would surprise me to have a strong bullish run from here but if we got a big high volume green candle that closed near highs, I can reassess.
Not
I usually don't mention my day trades, but since I sold some of my longs, I've just watched the chart all day. We never fell below the green trend line, ran out of buyers and had a break up with decent volume, so went long here with a new position.
Not
Its day 22 and we still don't have a direction. Being this late in the cycle without a break in direction, the risk is getting too much. We've consolidated for 13 days which is normally a bad sign. It can go in either direction but 've decided to close all swing trade positions and be happy with small profits.
Even if we go up from here, I don't think it will last long and I will focus more on finding a short positions.
Not
As patient as I was, I was about 2 hours too close my position as we broke out with good volume. So far it looks good. I don't see any reason to short it just get. I'll be watching and make a new post when I take a short.Not
The volatility and stop runs in bitcoin have been terrible. Doesn't make it easy to trade. Bitcoin came down to $3650 on a really nasty candle then formed a cup and completely reversed. After building consolidation, we had a nasty stop run and I've been chopped up a bit in day trades.
As a swing trade, I have no position as I closed after the big candle down a few weeks ago. I've been watching out for shorts, but the current price action is not what I want to see to go short. So I have a small day trade long now because both of these reversals look good so far.
In this chart you can see that we keep pushing up to $3900 and ever time we do the volume is getting lower as the market is running out of sellers. If bitcoin can get past this area, I think it has a chance to go for highs and have its first right translated cycle since 2017. That would be a big step in reversing the bear market. (thought it wouldn't guarantee it).
To me, this is as close as we've come to going bullish on the dialy. So I'm really hoping we continue up. I'm tired of trading this bear market and ready for some bullish action. But I'm still cautious. We need to break through $3900 in the next 24 hours. Preferably before week close. Spending a few more days here and the bulls will run out of steam and the next collapse down is probably going to take us down to $3500.
Bulls have the reversal at $3650 and then recovered a nasty stop run yesterday. And now they've forced bears to sell out 3 times and that bear volume is getting lower, so this is a perfect opportunity to break it and go on a big run.
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