10/11 Can positive earnings season secure BTC Pumpctober?

12 Eki

Overview:
The SPY continues its bullish streak, hitting a new all-time high and marking the fourth consecutive day of gains. But what’s fueling all this excitement? Just a few weeks ago, concerns about World War III and a looming recession were dominating the headlines. Now, it seems like the market is brushing off those fears. Pumping the SPY means pushing up the stocks that make up the index, which suggests an improvement in their earnings, particularly net margins.

Conveniently, earnings season typically starts in mid-October and runs through late October and early November. This past week, giants like PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo all reported earnings—and they all beat analysts' expectations. What’s notable about this group is its diversity: from consumer staples like food and beverages to airlines, signaling strong consumer purchasing power, to investment and banking companies, which are more dependent on macroeconomic factors and the Federal Reserve’s decisions. These companies, often beneficiaries of quantitative easing, could be the early indicators of a trend. With such a strong start, we might expect more companies to continue beating estimates, setting the stage for what we’re calling "Pumpctober."

In the coming week, we’ll hear from other banking giants like Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Healthcare heavyweights like Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth Group are also on the docket, along with Netflix. You can find the full list and earnings calendar here: ii.co.uk/investing-with-ii/international-investing/us-earnings-season.

So, let’s sum it up: the market is surging, consumer spending seems robust, and on Friday, Jerome Powell reported higher-than-expected CPI and core CPI. It feels like the economy is running hot, but that also means no immediate need for an interest rate cut. What clouds the picture slightly is a higher-than-expected number of jobless claims—258k compared to the expected 230k, and higher than the previous 225k. If unemployment continues to rise, it could impact company earnings by Q1 and Q2 of 2025. For now, though, we’re all in on Pumpctober, with a 90% chance of an interest rate cut in November, up from 82%.

ETF Flow: The big players aren’t buying BTCUSD or ETHUSDT . Retail investors are. BlackRock and Grayscale are still sitting on the sidelines.

BTC TA:
W: Bitcoin is barely holding onto the Bollinger Band MA and remains below the weekly and daily levels of $64 k. It’s also under the 2024 yearly point of control (Volume Profile indicator) level of 63.2k. However, we noticed that the current price is very close to the closing levels of the last two quarterly candles—June and September both closed at 62.6k. Until it breaks below 61.4k, we can’t call it bearish just yet.

D: Thursday’s close below the key 60.5k level appeared to signal a breakout, but BTC quickly retraced, turning that breakdown into a fake-out. If the stock market keeps rallying, some of that liquidity and optimism could spill over into crypto, completing a bullish flag pattern. Saturday is showing some bullish momentum, but we need today’s candle to close above 62.8k to confirm a higher high.

4h: On this time frame, Bitcoin is battling strong resistance at 63k. It’s unlikely we’ll see significant movement on a Saturday, as market makers tend to be less active, but if BTC fails to break out from 63k, it would confirm a bearish trend, and shorting from here could offer a good entry point.

1h: On Friday, we saw 7 consecutive hours of aggressive buying starting at 9 am NYC time, with volume doubling the average and pushing BTC from 61.1k to 63k, a 3.19% jump.

Alts Relative to BTC: What was a lower low for BTC was a higher low for ETH, SOL, NEAR, and BNB, which is a bullish sign. However, none of these alts have established a higher high, which cancels out the bullish sentiment. The best move for now is to avoid taking positions until there’s a major breakout with confirmation.

Bull Case: We could be on the verge of a trend reversal, breaking the bullish flag pattern. Both the US and Chinese economies are about to be flooded with cheaper money, which could flow into speculative assets like crypto.

Bear Case: This is an ideal moment to short BTC if it fails to reclaim resistance and turn it into support. The deadline for confirmation is Sunday evening.

Fear and Greed Index: 43, back to Neutral.

Prediction: All eyes are on Sunday, 9 pm EST and 6 pm PST, when Asian traders will return to their desks. Expect increased volatility as bulls and bears clash.

Mistakes: Both SUI and TAO have continued to pump higher despite lower volumes and volatile price swings of around 15%. If it establishes a higher high, stalls and you short - at least you can trade the range while BTC decides its direction.