Bitcoin Price Action Update (day 344)

Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

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Consensio: Daily is fully bullish. Weekly is getting close to golden cross / turning bullish

Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | Bull Channel
Horizontals: R: $5,967 & $5,825 | S: $5,675 $ $5,500
Trendline: Currently testing to top of the bull channel
Parabolic SAR: D = $5,190 | Just broke 4h
Futures Curve: Backwardation. Watching for spread to increase if price continues to fall
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0151%
BTCUSDSHORTS: Middle of range, looks healthy
TD’ Sequential: Daily R9 after C13
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily Kijun-Sen = $5,462 | Cloud in $5,000 neighborhood. Weekly just had bullish TK cross but thick cloud is waiting overhead

Relative Strength Index: Weekly is healthy. Daily has triple bear div
Average Directional Index: Continues to pullback as price climbs. If support > 25 then that is quite bullish. If -DI cross above +DI then that is quite bearish.
Price Action: 24h: -0.88% | 2w: +13.48% | 1m: +10.06%
Bollinger Bands: MA = $5,419
Stochastic Oscillator: Daily sell signal


Summary: Before getting into the analysis I want to talk about what to expect moving forward. Originally this was the Bitcoin Daily Update and I consistently made a post each day for almost a year. Now I do not believe that is the best way to do it. Sometimes there is simply nothing to talk about and / or it is time to wait on the sidelines for further confirmation.

During those times I do not think it is beneficial for me, or the viewers, to make an update. This causes me to look for things that aren’t there in order to provide the necessary content. This negatively affects my analysis and also leads to frustration / impatience.

Moving forward I plan to only make posts when there is highly important information to discuss and / or a trade on the table. Since I focus on the higher time frames this will likely be less than half a dozen posts per month. Instead of quantity I will be focusing on quality. For shorter and more frequent posts follow me on Twitter : )

Now that is out of the way let’s discuss the price action!

Price has been in a bull channel over the past month and has consistently moved up after breaking through $4,200. Over the last 48 hours it threatened to break through the top of the channel. When breaking above a bull channel, or below a bear channel, the following move is expected to be violent primarily as a result of cascading liquidations.

Instead it looks like we had a bull trap. The price spend some time above the top of the channel and looked like it was going to blow through $6,000 there for a minute. However the daily closed back below the trendline and formed a nasty shooting star in the process. That also occurred on a daily red 9.

What is very interesting is how the wick perfectly touched the low from Feb 6, 2018 which was the spike low that followed the selloff from all time highs. That retested prior support for resistance and that suggests to me the market is ready to reverse.



Technical Analysis is showing signs of a reversal and the Fundamentals are painting the same picture. At 8:00 EDT Binance announced that they had been hacked for 7,000 BTC or approximately $40,000,000.

The price dumped more than 4% in the following thirty minutes. We found support at $5,640 and have rallied back to $5,800 since then. I think this is a great opportunity to build a short position. I am shorting from $5,746.5 - $5,811. About 70% of my position has been filled and my last order waits at $5,811. Profit targets are $4,800 and $4,100 which provides a 1:7.66 risk:reward ratio.