BITCOIN Closed 7 straight red weeks for the 1st time in history!

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed this weekend its 7th straight red weekly (1W) candle, which is a feat seen for the first time in history. More specifically, the last time we had 6 straight losing weeks on Bitstamp was from August to September 2014:



** Healthy stock market needed **
Needless to say, this development is very negative for BTC, especially from a psychological standpoint as the market being full of weak hands and late buyers during corrections, it tends to be dominated by fear, uncertainty and doubt. That accelerates more selling until the market stabilizes and high capital investors (whales, big institutions etc), enter the market again methodically.

Much will of course depend on the outlook of the stock market. Once the correction that began at the start of this year ends and the disappointing macro-economic environment stabilizes, institutional investors can again enter the riskier crypto-market. Until then we can expect more of that volatility at best.


** First week below 31600 since Dec 2020 **
However there is a certain basis we can work on and a few patterns to relate to. First, last 1W candle wasn't just the 7th straight red but was also the first weekly closing below 31600 since the December 21 2020 1W candle, thus reaching levels of almost 1.5 year back. The 1W MA200 is now at 21960 and as I've mentioned in previous posts, it is the weekly Support of the typical Bear Cycle.


** The importance of the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the 1W MA200**
Also last week's candle, left a big wick below as it rebounded strongly from roughly 25400. Such candles were last seen on November 29 2021 and May 17 2021. Both of those started a consolidation of at least 1 month. The difference was that the November one failed to break its 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, thus kickstarting further decline, while the May one eventually broke above the 0.5 Fib, shifting the trend to bullish. The 0.5 Fib is currently a little over 35000. A weekly close above it, could be enough to restore the long-term bullish bias, even though technically there is still the massive Resistance of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) to consider which rejected last time the uptrend (March 2022). A weekly closing below last week's low, should deliver the, much anticipated by the majority of market participants, capitulation blow on (and even slightly below) the 1W MA200, where Bear Cycles bottom out and typically consolidate for 4-6 months before initiating the new Bull Cycle.


So what do you think will be the case this time? Will the market deliver the 1W MA200 to us? Or if the 0.5 Fib breaks, a new Bull Phase will start regardless? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!


P.S. The last time the 1W RSI has been that low was on the March 09 2020 1W candle, which was the bottom of the COVID crash.

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