A look at the potential bear scenario.

We have just retested the always important 1 day 50ma and currently are still finding it to maintain resistance. This coupled with the lack of any surge in volume during the break upward from the ascending triangle pattern makes me have to reevaluate what sort of pattern we may still be consolidating inside....so I wanna take a look at a potentially bearish scenario here by examining this currently valid rising wedge. If we are unable to flip the 1 day 50ma to solidified support in the next week or so then odds are quite good this wedge could be validated with a full drop target of 4.1k if it were to breakdown in the current range. if it were to fall that low then I would expect us to go lower at least back to 3.8k for a double bottom possibility but likely to form a lower low below that and which would mean the next zone to look out for would be a double bottom with our 2019 low of 3.1k of course it could even continue to go lower than that if it wanted to fulfill the elliot wave crowd's expectations of 1k and even sub 1k which is still within the realm of possibility. However we must remember that wedges often times dont reach their full breakdown target and if we've already seen our bear market capitulation candle back in mid march we could easily also break down from the wedge just for a little bit then reverse back upwards...it's also even possible for us to break upwards from a rising wedge every now and then which the 2019 rally illustrated for us a few times...so we must tread very carefully here. The most important hurdle is directly above us right now and if we can just simply flip the 1 day 50ma(in orange) to solidified support we can hopefully avoid this bearish scenario..we will also have to flip the 1day chart 200 simple ma (in blue) to solidified support as well soon after though.