If we look at the weekly chart we can see the clear pattern since our peak to 14K. We go down, touch the bottom of the channel, have a quick reaction rally back up to the top, get all the retail traders really bullish, get a fake-out wick to the upside, and then come back down.
Of course, silliness ensues and people start assigning ridiculous fundamental narratives to each rally: China, war with Iraq, etc..., which only seems to validate them and excite retail traders even more to suck them into a trap. Nothing is related to those rallies. It's just Bitcoin doing its thing per the whales and market makers.
We've now had our third fake-out wick to the upside. Why should this time be any different? We did break the 200 SMA on the 4-day and have now come back to retest it and found support - that's bullish. But... Unless next week's candle is green, we are just doing the same thing yet again and should expect to revisit the bottom of the channel.
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