BTCUSD: Price Poised To Push 9600 Level?

11 Mar 2018

BTCUSD update: 8859 minor reversal zone support holds price as it is poised to test the 9616 minor resistance level. A close above this resistance will signal renewed bullish momentum which is more likely to lead to a retest of the 11700 double top area.

The pin bar that appeared off of the 8659 level a couple of days ago is the bullish clue. As you can see, price did not continue higher immediately off the pin bar. There was a bearish candle that appeared first. This candle which is nothing more than noise, looks a lot more dramatic on smaller time frames, enough to suck people into shorts or shake people out of longs. This is why I always emphasize evaluating the bigger picture first. The low of that initial pin bar was never compromised. This bearish failure translates into a bullish sign.

The 9616 level is the .382 minor resistance of the recent bearish swing. Once price closes above this level, it will confirm that a new bullish leg is in progress. Are there swing trade opportunities here? Yes, but like I wrote in my previous report, the specifics to this trade will be published elsewhere. Even without a specific call, there is enough information here to quantify risk and anticipate reasonable targets.

Keep in mind, the fact that price has pushed into the current support has also signaled for me that the near term expectation of this market is a range bound environment. That means the 10422 to 10943 minor resistance (.618 of recent bearish swing) and the 11700 peak area have a higher chance of preventing a broader break out. IF prices tests these levels and shows immediate signs of failure, I will be prepared to lock in more profit on the position trade that I am managing at the moment. IF price just blows through (still possible) I will take no action and let the winner run.

In summary, many less experienced traders often think in absolutes: IF THIS, THEN DEFINITELY THAT. You can't operate in these markets with such limited thinking. Even gauging precise probabilities is more appropriate for PhD's in Statistics, and not practical for speculators looking to capitalize on short term market movement. What is more practical is having the ability to question the market at all times by maintaining a flexible mindset. As price pushes off the current support, and it is strong as proven by the inability to make a new low, how should it behave at the 9616 level? What should the candle look like? How should a strong market present itself upon testing a minor resistance? How should it close? What about if the pin bar low is taken out instead? What does that mean and how does it change expectations for yourself and the herd? These are the questions that you should be asking and answering as the market provides new information.

Questions and comments welcome.