BTC: Fibonacci analysis and the path to 72k

12 Nis 2021

This chart is a bit busy, but it's essentially an extrapolation built on top of my attempt to figure out where BTC will go in the immediate future.

The TL;DR version is that we witnessed a major structural dip in BTC's trajectory throughout March, but that the wave might be picking up now, and subsequently reaching higher — both absolutely, but mainly relatively speaking — than earlier.

The chart begins with the 16 December breakout.

Using the Fibonacci extension tool, we can see that what I'm referencing here as wave "ii" came in at around the 1.272 Fibonacci extension. This Fibonacci level is commonly hit in strong uptrends.

The next peak, however (wave "iii" on this chart) was substantially lower than the one previous.

It comes in on the 0.618 Fibonacci extension level.

This downturn in upside strength was repeated again, with wave "iv", coming in at the 0.5 Fibonacci extension level.

However, wave "v", which BTC is printing now, appears relatively stronger, coming in at the 0.618 Fibonacci extension level.

If we estimate that BTC is stepping back up the Fibonacci levels, we can give rough projections for waves "vi" to "viii" to follow.

How am I deriving the top of wave "v" — the current wave BTC is printing?

I'll link a screenshot below, but I noted earlier, when analysing wave "iv", that the 0.75 of the Fibonacci fans tool landed clean on a trend line shared between the low of 28 February and the low of 25 March.

So aligning the 0.75 of a new Fibonacci fans tool with the trend line shared between the low of 25 March and the low of 7 April may suggest the next local low, and also the possible ceiling of the present wave ("v").

There are a lot of presumptions here, and it's not impossible that price action driven by large players breaks this unfolding structure dramatically.

There is a lot of uncertainty in the whole crypto market right now, as I'm sure all are feeling.

Nonetheless, let's see what happens.

If any of this is valid, I would see two more peaks before we arrive to 72.3k. Thereafter is anyone's guess.

A couple of additional points:

1. As the wave slowed (waves iii and iv), the dips became noticeably more shallow. The last local low (7 April) didn't pass through the 200 EMA on the 4hr chart. It looks likely that the 100 EMA on the 4hr chart will be tapped in the next local low, at 59.1k.

2. Generally, the EMAs are tightening, but we might expect them to widen out as BTC pushes up more strongly from here.

Feel free to comment.

12 Nis 2021

Not

This is the alignment from which I went on to project the present wave BTC is printing right now, its low and possible high, using the Fibonacci fans tool.

12 Nis 2021

Not

This is the current state of play as I see it: I expect a short push up, for BTC to hit the top trend line (marginally descending), come back down to where the arrow points, and continue to the upside. But again: nothing is certain here. A break down cannot be ruled out.

16 Nis 2021

Not

Comment: 16 Apr 2021 15:07:00: The scenario appears to be still playing out, with important differences that are open to opposed interpretations. On the one hand, it could be seen that BTC did a full Fibonacci extension, in reaching to almost 65k, not a 0.786 extension, according to the local high projected on this chart. The pullback has almost reached a full retracement, if you look only at the last breakout upside impulse, starting 13 February. But the extension projection was based on 7 April as the starting point. If we track he retracement from there, we've only touched into the 0.5 Fibonacci level. As per the chart above, I would expect a retracement down to the 0.618 level, at around 59.1. The exact apex of the trend lines in the chart above is now behind us in time. We have to improvise another trend line above the last consolidation period to fashion another apex, which appears to coincide with the trajectory of the 100 EMA on the 4hr chart. It would be odd, but not impossible, to revisit an apex even lower, at 58.7, between the 100 and 200 EMAs on the 4hr chart. But it's also possible that this small dip ends right here, and BTC continues to the upside. I waited for the 0.618 recently, and it never came. Given that BTC went to full extension on the last upside push, we might expect more than the full extension on the chart for the next wave. The 1.272 level at 68.7 might come into view. That said, it's hard not to take note of BTC passing right through the last breakout trend line, which could be a signal that 64.9 is as far as BTC will go. If a significant macro retracement starts to unfold, we might see a dramatic stepping down through support levels over the coming 2-3 months. But if that happened, I would still be bullish on BTC, and would be looking at this cycle as a two-peak cycle, rather than a single peak cycle. Because the overall trend is still strongly bullish, despite continued weekly bearish divergence.