BTC/USD Short Trade Setup Analysis (1D Timeframe - Coinbase)

1 Şub

🔍 Market Context:
- Bitcoin has completed a five-wave Elliott Wave structure, suggesting a potential corrective phase.
- A corrective ABC wave is forming, with wave (b) rejecting at the 0.753 Fibonacci retracement level (106,484 USD), indicating strong resistance.
- The price is showing weakness at key resistance, confirming a possible trend reversal or deeper retracement.

📊 Trade Entry Criteria:
- The short trade is based on Elliott Wave analysis, expecting a wave (c) drop towards Fibonacci extension targets.
- Price is currently in a consolidation zone after completing wave (b), showing signs of a lower high formation.
- Strong resistance is holding at 106,484 USD, preventing further upside.

🎯 Trade Targets & Risk Management
- Entry Price: Around 101,767 - 106,484 USD
- Stop Loss (SL): Above 109,295 USD (previous key resistance)
- Take Profit (TP):
- First target: 92,482 USD (previous support)
- Second target: 87,646 USD (1.618 Fibonacci extension)
- Extended target: 76,374 - 73,440 USD (0.618 Fibonacci retracement)
- Risk-to-Reward Ratio: High probability setup with a strong risk-reward structure.

🛑 Stop-Loss Placement:
- The stop-loss is placed above 109,295 USD, invalidating the short if price continues upwards.

📉 Profit Target Justification:
- The 1.618 Fibonacci extension at 87,646 USD aligns with key support and an ideal corrective wave target.
- If bearish momentum increases, a deeper retracement toward 72,273 - 63,526 USD is possible.

📌 Summary
- Bitcoin has likely completed a five-wave rally and is entering a corrective phase.
- Fibonacci resistance at 106,484 USD is holding, indicating a strong rejection point.
- Wave (c) projection suggests a decline toward 87,646 - 73,440 USD, aligning with key support levels.
- If price reclaims 109,295 USD, the trade setup is invalidated and a continuation to new highs could occur.

🔻 If confirmed, this short setup provides a strong risk-reward ratio with multiple profit targets in case of deeper correction.

1 Şub

İşlem aktif

Trade is going well. Take partial profits here at 100.5k as we may see price pull up abit from here before resuming lower

2 Şub

İşlem kapandı: hedefe ulaştı

Trade closed. Can keep a portion open if you choose depending on your entry. Pull up is a potential. We can look for another short soon.