what's next for BTC

14 Haz 2021

so we nailed the breakout and made a few bucks, but where is bitcoin heading now?

in the immediate term, i'm short (and i've sold all the long positions i opened a couple of days ago). price is moving up into a strong resistance zone around 42K, and i expect we'll come back down to retest the top of the triangle.

(1) this is a long established support/resistance zone
(2) 4x buying pressure drops off, and 3x selling pressure picks up
(3) what goes up must come down

if price finds support at the top of the triangle, it's certainly possible that it surges right back up to retest 42k. i think it's probably more likely that price continues down though. i can see the potential for an inverse H&S right shoulder forming around 33.5k, and i'll certainly be looking for a buying opportunity there. if price fails to find support there, it would be looking like a pretty bearish descending triangle-like consolidation pattern to me.

if price does break through this resistance, expect more resistance at 45k.

15 Haz 2021

Not

i went to bed last night with the funny feeling that i might regret selling here, and woke up this morning to more positive news headlines (survey indicating hedge funds plan on increasing crypto exposure, Tim Draper doubling down on his 250k BTC prediction, etc).

my crypto exposure is probably still higher than most traders', mostly because i believe that price will need retest the down trendline at some point, it's just a question of when.

while i'm not eager to FOMO into a bad position, these are 3 areas i'll be watching to potentially open up some longs:

(1) current up trendline. we've only touched it twice, but another bounce there would confirm the minor trend.
(2) top of the triangle. another obvious one that traders will be looking at.
(3) the bull trendline from the start of the run in 2020. i think this line has the most potential for fireworks (in either direction) with a sea of liquidity surrounding it.



if any of these three plays out, i think bulls could make a run for that down trendline. if price breaks up sooner, i've gotta believe it will come back down at some point to give us another shot at a better entry. i still think there will be a ton of resistance at 42K and 45k.

16 Haz 2021

Not

fyi - i'm getting married this weekend so i probably won't be providing many updates until later next week.

we're approaching the first potential bounce zone. i'm not really expecting a bounce here, but it's worth watching low TFs just in case.

i would still treat any trade here as if 25K is equally as likely as 45k, i.e.:

(1) confirm the bounce before entering. make sure you have actual support and not just a wedge or bearish pennant type situation
(2) take modest profits. if you wanna "let it ride", use a trailing stop.
(3) keep tight stop losses below local support

if we bounce off the bull trendline (#3), be careful to watch for the formation of a head & shoulders.

i probably won't have time to do any trading, but this is what i would be looking for if i was.



good luck!

17 Haz 2021

Not

wedgin out

17 Haz 2021

Not

as expected, no bounce yet. let's see what's behind door #2.