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The REAL Bottom is still coming!!

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Bitcoin never made a true bottom from this perspective. It has completed a .618 retracement of the last swing high that lined up with a 4.23 extension off the swing low and now has show rejection of that area. If this continues, expect to see Bitcoin start to test lower fib supports and make its way back toward the previous lows. If the retracement lineup is to be believed, there is a strong potential for a bottom around 2500-2600 USD. This could happen leading up to the halvening or around that time, but for now this is a big picture projection likely to take weeks to play out.

This is just an initial post, but I will add more evidence to it!

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The alternative to this possibility is buying volume shows up very soon and pushes towards the .786 at 10,800 but this is much less likely now that we've seen the weakening volume as the move become extended.

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Big picture view:

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The 9200-9300 fib area will be a good place to watch for clues about the next short term movements.

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Still waiting to see some volume show up. Tuesday is often the day that starts the strong moves that happen during the week. Will update with a smaller timeframe chart tomorrow after the give us some more candles.

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They've tapped the .50 fib at 9350 and now we watch to see if they will pierce it to go lower.

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We've breached the .50 and the blood is starting to show up. If they break the 9230 area with force, we have room to drop fast.

They've opened a 1hr candle in that area, so if they continue to push selling pressure we have a high probability of seeing the 8000s again in the very near future.

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We saw a little bit of selling pressure wear off for a couple hours, but price action is still sitting right on the edge of this fib area. If we can get a clean break of 9200, we should see the blood start to flow and the next clues will lie in where we stop next. Still watching closely at the trends to continue to bend on the lower timeframes.

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They've broken through the 9200 level. We still don't see enough selling volume to really drive it hard through just yet, but support seems to be struggling. Let's see if they can open and close candles in this area...

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If we don't open and close candles under this 9200 level, we may see a pull back up into that area between 9300 and 9700. Be on the lookout for increased selling into this move if we are going to head lower.

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We have our first 1 hour candle under 9200 which supports a move lower. This supports the move to test lower levels of support.

Any significant increase in selling volume could result in a fast drop to the next area somewhere between 8500 and 8800 USD. Be safe out there!

I am NOT a financial advisor and this information is NOT intended to be financial advice. It is intended for educational purposes only.

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Things are looking bleak for the bulls. We can see a break, hook, and potential GO forming on the 1 hour. We broke the 9200 level, hooked back to it, and then got a rejection. This is a strong indication that we're about to head much lower.

Now we wait and watch that 8500-8800 level VERY closely! We're looking to see if there's any sort of strong reaction in that area. Watch the alts as well during this time. If BTC stalls and goes sideways, the alts may breathe and pull back from their own drops. This does not mean we've turned back up right away, so be cautious and be aware of the elevated risks present in the crypto and traditional asset markets!

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We got the GO after the break and hook:

Now we want to see if they continue to bleed past this level. If 8500 breaks, it opens up the drop to just above the 8000 USD level. If volume increases into the drop, it could accelerate rapidly. Be safe out there!

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Price/volume divergence is showing up on the 1hr and 4hr for Bitcoin as well as on many of the USD alt pairings. This is an indication that buying strength is not building momentum and that we may resume the downward price action in the near future. It is possible we see a pole or a bear flag formed in this area over the next few hours/days. I will post an updated chart if anything changes or if a strong pattern emerges.

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They certainly seem to know where those fibs are...

We're sitting right above the 8500 level - watch for heavy volume to show up to either push us down and through it or to pull us back up a little to check in with the 8700 level.

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Some volume came in on the lower timeframes and we pushed back up into the 8600-8700 area. We're checking in with that 8700 area now, if enough sentiment exists to "buy the dip" here - we could stall out and move sideways for awhile. Look for some of the alts to breathe if BTC stalls out in this area for awhile. It's not uncommon for some of the severe alt moves to pull back when BTC stalls during a strong move. If selling volume returns in the next few hours, we could see the blood attempt to break the 8500 level and start to reach towards 8k. This could get very choppy before they give us some good candles to make sense of what might be coming next.

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They pushed us up and retraced some of the drop. They bounced right at 8500 where we originally wanted to see a bounce. Notice the white line bounces right there in my original possibility as indicated by the lower arrow. In digging into the 1hr, there may be a square up around 9500 where the upper arrow sits. They will need to push some more volume in if we're going to pull back that much from this drop though. Also, it is important to note the divergence in buying volume as this bounce has appeared. That typically suggests that the bounce is going to be weak and is unlikely to produce a local higher high. That could change if buy volume shows up in the near future. On this 1hr chart we can see price touched the blue MA and rejected slightly, so we will need to see if the divergence compresses into the higher timeframes.

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On the 4hr chart we cannot see that divergence yet, and there is plenty of room to make it to the potential square up at 9500 before any MAs come into play. We cannot rule out that choppy price action that has happened before in this price area when looking to the left on the chart. It is possible BTC takes some time before making the next hard swing down. Keep an eye on volume and potential divergence as the pullback progresses.

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Alright, we can see some serious indecision on the chart now. We're a couple hours away from closing today's daily candle and unless they make some strong movement the daily doji candle suggests that BTC is taking a breather while the market gets ready for the next movement. BTC had retraced some of yesterdays drop, but ended up giving it back by the end of today. It was interesting to note that BTC started to give it back right when the 3 major equities indexes took massive end of the day hits.

We can see on the 4hr that they bounced right where we were looking for it. Now if the buying volume doesn't show up going into the weekend, we might seen the blood continue. If BTC holds tight instead or pulls back more, it could let the alts breathe some more over the weekend with a few fomo bounces possible. Risk is still high across crpyto and the world markets. Always start with risk when analyzing trading opportunities!

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We broke the 8500 level in the past couple hours, which led to a small bounce as we hit some more buying. However, that bounce was unable to make a higher high in the context of the local move down, suggesting that we have more room to fall before we find strong support that would be capable of turning us back to the upside. I'll be watching equities closely today because BTC has been taking hits when the major indexes have taken them in the past week. It's a very abnormal sort of cross-market confluence. This should make all traders and investors pay really close attention to the global financial scene. After equities close today, we could see some green in crypto over the weekend, but it will likely be weak retracements of the drops we've put in this week. I will post an updated chart later today.

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We got the bounce and rejection we were looking for. If BTC keeps following the equities today, it's likely we see the 8500 level drop completely and it opens up the next dip to 8000. Still very little buying to be seen. This looks like the start of a secure downtrend forming, but there is more to prove. We want to see interest increase and volume increase into the next dip to confirm we get to go lower.

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This is what I'd like to see if we are securing a downtrend to go lower

Interest should increase on the selling side as we drop into the next level if we break 8500 - we could go sideways here for awhile still, but if we open/close candles under 8500 we should see interest increase if it supports the move lower. 8k should be an interesting area if we get there.

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We are still stalled in this fib zone. The longer we sit, the more likely it is we pull back to square up the initial drop at 9500. There's a growing chance we head back up to 9500 to test resistance. For this down move to stay on the table, we want to see resistance hold us below that area. If they start to make a move either way, I'll update this post with a chart over the weekend.

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Take a look at the 1hr view zoomed out. So far, they have come fairly close to our potential path based on important fib areas and support/resistance zones:

If we zoom way in we can see that a 1 hr candle managed to open and close under the 8500 fib level. This is an indication that we are likely to head down lower into the 8000-8500 fib area, which is what we've been looking for since the original post:

Finally, looking at the 4 hour view, we can see that so far we have only pierced under 8500 on the higher timeframes. Pay close attention to major equity indexes when they open tomorrow. Bitcoin has been moving down with the global markets the past week or so. If the equities markets gap down or even bleed quickly tomorrow morning EST, we may see the BTC blood return. We can see a descending triangle pattern, which is more often than not a continuation pattern. Should they decide to honor the pattern with force, we could see a fast rip though the 7000s before any significant pullback.

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If the global equities do not continue to take severe hits tomorrow, we may bounce around in the 7000s more like the original possible pathway from the original post.

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The triangle pattern was broken to the upside and we're seeing price increase as volume drops off. We might get a Monday fomo bounce to that square up around 9200 or even the 9500 drop level. Crypto can be very volatile, especially on the way down, so be prepared for a weak push up if equities turn green today.

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Still moving sideways in the current area. If we continue for a bit, it may setup some alts to make moves while the equities bounce. BTC could also still go for the 9500 square up. I'll be watching equities closely in the next few weeks as well as the volume and interest in BTC compared to alt/usd pairs. They may drag this area out for awhile, but there's no rush! Nothing yet has indicated that the move down is off the table.

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it sideways :thumbsup:

What I saw as a potential triangle was broken, but with nominal volume and price action that looks more like a sideways pole move. Will have to pay attention to positioning as it moves sideways - volume and leveraged setups as well as ETH and LTC

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That didn't last long! We broke the 8500 area nicely now and we seem to be making the drift down to 8k, I've been recovering this weekend from a personal issue - but I'll post a chart update sometime in the next day or so as things progress. If 8k falls with equity blood next week, it's going to get volatile and things will likely start moving very quickly. Oil is set to collapse next week and that could in turn drive equities down further alongside the currencies tied to oil. Be smart and protect your capital!

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We just barely managed to retrace to the 9200 USD fib before the full force of the sellers came back in to prove they are still fully in control. We are seeing the downtrend establishing security and it is clear that the swing high happened back at the 10,400 USD area. Now we watch the fibs and volume to see how low we might be headed and the world equities markets go into a full blown meltdown. They are almost officially in bear market territory and it only took a week or so to get there from all time highs. This is likely going to get worse before it gets better.

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Pulling targets to the downside off the first leg down after the turn, gives us additional confirmation of a return to the 2500-2800 USD area as a potential bottom 4.23 fib hit. We will have to see how price action develops and if adjustment is needed as things develop further!

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Zooming in on the 1hr we can see that they appear to have bounced at the .786 (if these fibs hold true). We need more info to see if we have the correct leg measured here and the week is only just beginning in the equities.

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Good God they did it much faster than expected- we're already down into the 5000s and we're likely going back to the bottom or lower.

They knew where the fibs were, they are proving it now. Nothing to do but wait in safety until the virus is over and the world can resettle. This will get worse before it gets better. Be safe, protect your capital and your family!

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Now that they are trying to hold this level, we could see some pull back either just to the 1.618 area at 6500 or all the way to the 7000-7500 area where we just fell from. They don't have to do it, but it could look something like a typical H&S pattern if they try both resistance areas and the higher one holds:

They could also drop the 6k level fast and head n down to the 5k target level at the 2.618 area. Be safe and start with risk first always!

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Do you believe me now?

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We finally squared up the 4500 candle wow!

Be safe out there, I don't believe this is over. We may bounce from here since we squared up the 4500 area, but if we do I expect weak buying and price/volume divergence on any pullback. It is unlikely we pullback more than 40% of the drop we just did in the past couple days.

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I see a really foolish inverted h&s outlined in purple. I don't believe this will hold up and at, most we may get a small bounce up to the 5900 or 6500 fib levels. This is highly unlikely for me (unless we get a short squeeze before the next drop). You can see in the triangle pattern and when looking closely on the 1 hr chart it appears that most of the volume is compression into the selling side. This suggest selling pressure in the pattern is building against very little buying pressure. See the white-colored, circled areas of heavier volume and price decrease that accompanies it. I think the more likely option is we drift sideways and then we see selling resume in the next few days or sooner.

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They went with the bounce up option to the 5900 area and then went right down like we were expecting. I think next we may see the floor fall out. It is likely that 2500 DOES NOT HOLD!! We may be going into the 2000s or lower given the world state of things.

Be ready. Be safe. Bank runs are coming. Unlimited quantitative easing = unlimited inflation. 0% bank reserve rate = no cash on reserve when they get run. We are looking at the next great depression just before it starts. Screenshot this if you want - the equities will be cut in half and BTC will likely get cut in half again from here. This is not financial advice. Good luck!

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Lots of people are calling the bottom... really? I don't see anything bullish.. I see a break in the selling leading to a pullback and a really sloppy potential bear flag pattern. That takes us right on down to our target area and maybe lower, but they may mess around in the flag pattern first. They might also head fake back up to 7k or so, but if it lacks strong volume and building sentiment, it will likely fail and crash back into the pattern before testing the bottom and heading lower.

I see nothing bullish here in the big picture personally. Good luck!

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They pushed up and out of the pattern, but still have not managed to build much momentum for a higher high yet. Keep an eye on volume and the world markets. They wicked up out of the pattern, but they ended yesterday's candle forming a doji candlestick, which suggests uncertainty and potentially the end of the little upswing here. Watch for red and/or a bearish engulfing candle today to confirm that we are going back to test the bottom of the flag-like pattern.

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Still in the bear flag, but volume has been divergent to price which suggests the buyers are losing steam. The equities futures are in the red and the global pandemic is continuing to advance, so I'm watching for the selling volume to come in and push us out of the bear flag, if that happens with strong volume we could see another 1k-2k red candle sometime next week or in the near future. I still see nothing bullish, but they could still make another wick out of the top of the flag before we make the next move down. The highest probability is that we break the flag to the downside and continue the drop towards the 2500 area. When we get there, we will find out more about where the true bottom might be. Stay safe!!

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I haven't updated in awhile, but that's just because we're still inside the bear flag pattern.

The divergence has increased over time as price has trickled upwards, the volume has all but disappeared. That being said, Tether just printed another 1.5 BILLION usdt and it is entirely possible that they make a significant push to the upside to squeeze any short traders for the next leg down. April 1, 2019 we saw this exact event play out, so we'll be watching for any signs of a similar event unfolding. They don't have to make that push though and it could just be that they break the flag to the downside and continue lower towards the 2500 area. Pay close attention for signs of volume returning to one side of the order flow!!

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A lot of people are saying that this is a big pump, but so far all I see is the flag pattern continuing with relatively low volume so far on the daily.

That being said, we have several hours left int he day, but I won't be surprised if most of the push is over and we see volume trickle out to the end of the day. We came close to the blue MA on the daily and that plus the 1 fib would be resistance to going much higher than the upper boundary of the bear flag.

So far, nothing to see here except typical pullback price action after a significant drop that has yet to continue. They would need to break the top of the flag pattern with strong volume and then open and close candles on at least the daily up above it to convince me that they aren't going lower. The virus situation is still a looming global presence in the rest of the world's financial markets and there is likely more pain coming across all major financial markets imho. This is not financial advice and it is intended for educational purposes only!

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Are you experiencing FOMO yet? You shouldn't be.... volume is still weak on this push up and all we're doing is checking in with the blue MA and potentiall the 1 fib around 7,293 USD. When in doubt, you must zoom out. Lower highs and lower lows, until that changes -> down we go!

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We're STILL just hanging out in the bear flag - volume has flattened out and we're close to the bottom of the lower pattern boundary line. We're just starting to see them test that lower flag line now, if they break it with strong volume, it could start another drop similar to the one we saw from 8k to 4k. We're just now starting to see them pushing under that 0 fib level, so look for a little bit more of a push down, a hook back up to this area or near it, and then a strong move back towards the downside to test the previous swing low. If lower lows are made, it will mean that we are still in the secure downtrend channel move in the bigger picture and we're still making our way towards the 2500 level (or lower depending on how violent the move gets!!). We'll be playing close attention to the red long term trendline that was breached on the last swing low. They still need to bring the selling volume to really begin to resume the move down, so watch closely for momentum to pick up as the bear flag and nearby fib levels are broken.

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Anyone who went short over 10x yesterday (without extra margin to support it) just got liquidated this morning on a small push back into the flag. This resulted in about a 12% hit to the open shorts. In the big picture, nothing changed. The rekt bot was sure busy about 3-4h ago! Now that they've cleared that chunk of short traders and they still didn't put in a higher high locally, we will be watching for selling to return with any kind of volume and another push back down out of the flag pattern. They could just as easily move back up inside the pattern as well, which is why entering a short after a break to the downside is so risky in crypto. They love to fake down and out of patterns, but push back up into them before making the real move down. Be safe out there!! This is not financial advice and is intended for educational purposes only!

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There is a ton of FOMO going around right now and understandably so. We popped the entire length of the flag pattern in a single daily candle today. Now we're sitting at the top of the pattern and we even put in some decent volume so now we have to consider the possibility that the big boys decide to turn on the FOMO even more and swing to the upside a bit more. It's possible they swing as high as the 10k level fairly easily now and they could even go as high as the big timeframe .618 retracement at around 11,400 USD, but the possibility of this move is lower than a smaller push up from here. What they often like to do is a head fake out of the top of patterns or fibs to wipe out short traders and suck in more long traders to fuel the next big picture drop.

IF they don't bring a lot of buying support to put in a higher swing high than the last one at around 10,500 USD - then nothing has change din the big picture. We're still in a larger downtrend channel even as we proceed upward inside the lower timeframe flag pattern. Be safe - if you didn't enter lower to trade this swing up - now is not a good time to enter IMHO unless you know how to trade very aggressively with strict risk management control.

This is not financial advice and I am not a financial advisor. This is meant for educational purposes only.

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Nothing has changed yet -> that is one nasty exhaustion wick on the 1day chart along with a body that forms a gravestone doji candlestick pattern. This can be a potential turning point in this swing, which would give us a lower high and lead us back down towards the next low. Price volume is still divergent, even with the new volume inside the green candle that was printed 2 days ago. They could always trickle back up from here to fix the wick and they may even take their time to do it. This would look like a sideways drift between 8,000 and 9,300 USD. If this occurs, alts may have a chance at a halving rally, but if BTC resumes the big picture downtrend anytime soon with heavy volume, watch the alts for heavy blood as well.

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In the big picture, still nothing has changed. After retracing all the way back to the top of the drop, we can see the pressure being put into the sell side in the chart below. Every time volume picks up on this little channel at the top of the descending trend - it's selling volume. You can see the isolated spikes of volume in the chart below line up with the red bars of price action inside the white vertical lines in the chart below. This appears to be either profit taking, or shorts positioning. Currently as of the time of this writing, the long to short ratios are Bitfinex 4:1 - Bitmex 3:1 - Binance 1.25:1 which suggests that there are a lot more open contracts on the long side than the short side. At first glance, that might sound Bullish, but remember that exchanges make money from liquidating contracts - A LOT OF IT!! So, the most free money from an exchange point of view exists in dropping the price fast and liquidating all those longs. I STILL believe the REAL bottom is coming! Be safe out there, this is not financial advice and it is only for educational purposes!

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Here's a zoomed out view on the weekly chart. Pay attention to the volume now vs. 2017.

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