Fake break out up or fake break out back in again
I am just getting to many mixed signals still. This bear flag has become to big to be very reliable, it does show some signs that it is making a bearish wedge right now. But the bigger picture shows a higher high and of course my own way of looking at the market, still says we have to go up from here. But the US tax on crypto issue just keeps spinning in my mind. Because this market is just so small, even a couple of hundred million can put a lot of pressure on this market.
Month ago the Mt. Gox trustee was blamed for crashing the whole market since the ATH, with only 400 million worth of BTC. I kept on saying that whole story was nonsense for being the reason that markets went down. But how much pressure should this give the market than, nobody knows yet how much taxes are going to be paid so i can't tell how much impact this can have on the market for the coming weeks.
I have been telling for months than BTC is going down on the long term and that view has not changed at all. Because this market has been damaged way to much and only if some real fundamental things start to change in a positive sense, i will adjust my view as well.
However, as i have been telling many times before, the market moves in waves and i still think we have to make another move up before we break the 6K again. If this US tax issue was not playing a role, i would go long without a doubt and maybe even a bigger position to take profit in the 7K levels and to leave some for the 8K levels. But the selling pressure just continues and i just can't tell if it's a natural move (normal buyers and sellers choosing direction) or that many people are forced to sell now (who need to pay their taxes). My followers know i went long at 6470 a week ago predicting a bear trap and i made another attempt Friday at 6560, both were profitable trades but of course not what i had in mind. But we should be getting an answer this week about the direction the market wants to take, break the 6400 or break the 7200/7500.
TA translates a combination of many factors into a chart. But exceptional things, like the Mt. Gox selling and now the US taxes (assuming people will sell crypto to pay them) are not part of a natural process. Eventually they DO become part of it, because when people know the facts they become a part of the trading/investing decisions they make.
I can keep on going but it just gets to complicated so i am going to leave it with this. Best advice i can give now, is just don't trade between 6500/7200.
I am still long since this morning at 6710 after making a small short trade on a wedge BTC made. It's a very small position because i know the risks are very high. I have put the stop just below the 6500 and my target? I don't know yet, i will determine that IF we break upwards. For now we in a range between 6600/6800 and hopefully we will get a break out (up or down) when the US traders wake up in an hour or 2. If we manage to stay above the 6700 i think we can see a small breakout later. No real fundament, but looks like the market has cooled down from that big drop yesterday and slowly wants to turn up again. But as i mentioned above, has the looks of making a bearish wedge. So price needs to push above that pattern to become bullish on the short time frame. In this chart we can see price broke out of the blue resistance line and the red one. As long as price stays above the 6500, it can all just be seen as a retest of the support levels. But reading charts is always in a subjective manner, that's why using several timeframes is also important to use to create a good analysis.
Month ago the Mt. Gox trustee was blamed for crashing the whole market since the ATH, with only 400 million worth of BTC. I kept on saying that whole story was nonsense for being the reason that markets went down. But how much pressure should this give the market than, nobody knows yet how much taxes are going to be paid so i can't tell how much impact this can have on the market for the coming weeks.
I have been telling for months than BTC is going down on the long term and that view has not changed at all. Because this market has been damaged way to much and only if some real fundamental things start to change in a positive sense, i will adjust my view as well.
However, as i have been telling many times before, the market moves in waves and i still think we have to make another move up before we break the 6K again. If this US tax issue was not playing a role, i would go long without a doubt and maybe even a bigger position to take profit in the 7K levels and to leave some for the 8K levels. But the selling pressure just continues and i just can't tell if it's a natural move (normal buyers and sellers choosing direction) or that many people are forced to sell now (who need to pay their taxes). My followers know i went long at 6470 a week ago predicting a bear trap and i made another attempt Friday at 6560, both were profitable trades but of course not what i had in mind. But we should be getting an answer this week about the direction the market wants to take, break the 6400 or break the 7200/7500.
TA translates a combination of many factors into a chart. But exceptional things, like the Mt. Gox selling and now the US taxes (assuming people will sell crypto to pay them) are not part of a natural process. Eventually they DO become part of it, because when people know the facts they become a part of the trading/investing decisions they make.
I can keep on going but it just gets to complicated so i am going to leave it with this. Best advice i can give now, is just don't trade between 6500/7200.
I am still long since this morning at 6710 after making a small short trade on a wedge BTC made. It's a very small position because i know the risks are very high. I have put the stop just below the 6500 and my target? I don't know yet, i will determine that IF we break upwards. For now we in a range between 6600/6800 and hopefully we will get a break out (up or down) when the US traders wake up in an hour or 2. If we manage to stay above the 6700 i think we can see a small breakout later. No real fundament, but looks like the market has cooled down from that big drop yesterday and slowly wants to turn up again. But as i mentioned above, has the looks of making a bearish wedge. So price needs to push above that pattern to become bullish on the short time frame. In this chart we can see price broke out of the blue resistance line and the red one. As long as price stays above the 6500, it can all just be seen as a retest of the support levels. But reading charts is always in a subjective manner, that's why using several timeframes is also important to use to create a good analysis.
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A zoom in of the pciture. I don't know if the red line has value, but it looks like the price is finding some resistance still so it could still be validNot
On the upside of the wedge, lets see if we can push through. Seems the red resistance line did still have value/weightNot
I am out for a few hours guys, i will update if something special happens, otherwise you know my plan. For now lets see if it succeeds in making a nice bull flag, instead of dropping all at once, if so the theory of the bearish wedge becomes much more likely, but anything above 6750 (red line) is still goodDon't forget to like guys :) and good luck
Not
I am so glad I went out today :) this sideways action is just killing sometimes. It’s getting worse each day. Nothing to report yet, small sign of strength that price is still at the high, making the wedge almost invalid. So we should be seeing a rise from here to 6900 next week or so :) lolNot
What has happened to this market,are they trying to bore the buyers or sellers? Really not much to add right now, does not really look like a wedge anymore because it's hanging to much at the high, doesn't mean we can't drop, but not because of the wedge. Objective view would say we are still in a bear flag since the drop from yesterday. So we need to see a small rally soon to break this short term bearish momentum, otherwise bears could be taking over againNot
And we got a new trading rangeNot
Massive huge pump breakout guys, we are up 50 points :) LOLAnyway, we seem ot be out of the range now, probably stay between 6800/7000 for the next 2 days. maybe we will reach 9K in 2020 or so :)
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Price did not push through the resistance of this channel it has been in for 2 days now. If we are able to break it upwards we should expect a small acceleration. I know there has not been allot of action, but where is the love guys, show me some likes :)
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And again it's very clear to me which exchange is actually leading again. This leadership has changed a few times over the pas half year. Anyway, Bitfinex is clearly trying to push higher, but it's not getting any real backup from the other exchanges, so i am afraid this sideways action is going to continue for a whole lot longer. I hope not of course, everyone is fed up with this already.
So i have a request guys to make everyone happier. If you have like a couple of hundred million to spare, push this market up or even down so we can see some direction. We would all appreciate it :)
We are above that channel now, but i actually don't give much value to it. It's almost certain that this channel was being controlled by certain people. It's better to watch those ranges
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I have posted a new idea
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.