Bitcoin has a decade of maturity, adoption and growth behind it. We should consider that "this time is different" isn't a meme, and take care in painting everything as "in 2018 or 2015 xx happened ... so in 2022 this will happen." While that -may- still hold true, you have to consider that as a new asset class, Bitcoin is evolving.
One of the interesting developments this cycle is expanded participants from TRADFI, ETFs, governments, corporations, musicians/artists/actors, etc. - its logical to see a reduction in volatility (upside and downside); more liquidity and trust = more stability. However we are still many stages from true mass adoption, so compared other markets volatility remains elevated.
Some points to consider:
1. I think traditional crypto patterns are ending. We are entering a new paradigm that many HTF analysts are still coming to terms with. Reference
.. and you clearly see what I mean- patterns reflect market fundamentals/psychology. That rising support is a reflection of the cycle's growing trust, adoption and maturity - TRADFI is a big player in the space now, whales are more experienced- both trade on technicals, not emotions.. - in the past we logged steep selloffs after an emotional parabolic top in a retail speculative-driven environment.
2. Reduced volatility was a theme of this cycle. Drawdowns and rises are weaker overall. In terms of growth and corrections this was the weakest cycle yet. The past two cycles logged an 80% weaker growth compared to the one that preceded it. And in terms of duration, you can use the bullish/bearish inversions of the 20w SMA and 21w EMA as a marker for bull and bear cycles- we observe a 17% shorter duration per cycle.
3. Supply is overall net drawdown for years (over 20% drop in supply since 2019), while the cost of mining rises. Miners and longterm holders are HODLing more than ever. This means less supply is available while demand for Bitcoin grows. I can't post a link to other services and TV doesn't provide supply data that I am aware of, so I attempted to paste a chart image showing that from Bitcoin's inception until 2019 it was a net increase in supply. But since then we've logged a net decline.
And so all of this to say that an 80% correction would take us to $10k Bitcoin, but given how (so far) our cycle growth was muted, I also expect the floor to remain higher during corrections- and so far it appears that is the case.
Note: all of this comes with a big caveat -- if we go to war or governments struggle to combat inflation and we hit a major recession or depression, this could invalidate Bitcoin's trajectory. Both of these are events that Bitcoin and crypto never endured, so it will be a test for my thesis that volatility is down while trust is up and growth will protect Bitcoin from larger corrections like we saw in the past.
One of the interesting developments this cycle is expanded participants from TRADFI, ETFs, governments, corporations, musicians/artists/actors, etc. - its logical to see a reduction in volatility (upside and downside); more liquidity and trust = more stability. However we are still many stages from true mass adoption, so compared other markets volatility remains elevated.
Some points to consider:
1. I think traditional crypto patterns are ending. We are entering a new paradigm that many HTF analysts are still coming to terms with. Reference
2. Reduced volatility was a theme of this cycle. Drawdowns and rises are weaker overall. In terms of growth and corrections this was the weakest cycle yet. The past two cycles logged an 80% weaker growth compared to the one that preceded it. And in terms of duration, you can use the bullish/bearish inversions of the 20w SMA and 21w EMA as a marker for bull and bear cycles- we observe a 17% shorter duration per cycle.
3. Supply is overall net drawdown for years (over 20% drop in supply since 2019), while the cost of mining rises. Miners and longterm holders are HODLing more than ever. This means less supply is available while demand for Bitcoin grows. I can't post a link to other services and TV doesn't provide supply data that I am aware of, so I attempted to paste a chart image showing that from Bitcoin's inception until 2019 it was a net increase in supply. But since then we've logged a net decline.
And so all of this to say that an 80% correction would take us to $10k Bitcoin, but given how (so far) our cycle growth was muted, I also expect the floor to remain higher during corrections- and so far it appears that is the case.
Note: all of this comes with a big caveat -- if we go to war or governments struggle to combat inflation and we hit a major recession or depression, this could invalidate Bitcoin's trajectory. Both of these are events that Bitcoin and crypto never endured, so it will be a test for my thesis that volatility is down while trust is up and growth will protect Bitcoin from larger corrections like we saw in the past.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.