BTC - Repeat of July and Close to Max Pain Level for Options?

So if you reference July, we retested the support level from the H1 2021 breakout in January before rallying.

If this plays out again, $37k(ish) is the floor and our first stop on the way up is max pain for options expiry, around $39k. And from there, a confluence of resistance for bulls to tackle. One thing I thought about but should have factored into my last analysis was that bears will want to make some easy profit here at options because they are clearly still in control.

If we strip away all the indicators, data, etc, at the simplest level we are in a nearly 4 month old falling wedge approaching an extremely oversold state. I believe the fair market value based on market sentiment is at least lower $40k so this wick down below that is giving traders a great scare and certainly shaking out overleveraged traders.

As falling wedges typically do- its expected to break to the upside at some point, and this is the logical bottom range of the wedge as we approach the macro support levels, and options expiry.