BTC Correction Prediction

I don't like to post a lot of predictions, but this is what I see as most likely scenarios for BTC. In trading I view everything as percentage based, and make trades accordingly. Scenario#1 of a 50-60% pullback from the all time high is around a 60% chance of happening. Scenario#2 of a 80% pullback I would put at 30%, with a 10% chance of BTC shaking this off, retaking it's uptrend line and remaining in extreme overbought levels.