Bitcoin - negative outlook

if the descending triangle develops completely the outlook is negative. Target areas could be within 260 and 280 USD/BTC.
I regard this negative version with a possibility of 60%. In consideration of the boom in the asian markets bulls could destroy the pattern easily and as we have seen in the last months - in the case of bitcoin everything is possible. (we have not enough historical data to plot charts based on former developments or deduct the outcome of new situation)