BTCUSD Correction Looming?

Bitcoin (BTC) – Updated Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

1. Weekly Timeframe
1. Ascending Parallel Channel (2023–Present)
• BTC has trended within a broad channel since early 2023, topping out at ~107,000 near the channel’s upper boundary. Price is currently consolidating in the 90,000–103,000 region.
• The lower trend line of this weekly channel sits much lower—around 65,000, serving as a key reference if a deeper correction unfolds.
2. Moving Averages & Ichimoku
• The 50 > 100 > 200 SMA alignment underlines a long-term bullish posture.
• Price remains above the Ichimoku Cloud, with the lagging span also above price—consistent with a bullish macro outlook.
3. Bollinger Bands
• BTC spent several weeks above the upper band, reflecting strong momentum. Price is now back inside, above the basis line (20 SMA), but could retrace further if overhead resistance persists.
4. Horizontal Supports & Order Blocks
• Major weekly supports near 67,000 and 48,000, should the correction gain momentum.
• A key bullish pivot was the break of a bearish OB on 29 Jan 2024, fueling the run from ~73,000 to 100k+.
5. Momentum & Volatility
• RSI has slipped from ~80 to ~65—still bullish but cooling off.
• MACD is positive yet waning on the histogram, hinting at reduced momentum.
• ADX ~41 with declining +DMI signals potential trend fatigue near the top of the channel.

Weekly Conclusion: The overarching trend remains bullish; however, any decisive break below 90,000 (and certainly below the wedge on the daily) raises the probability of a deeper move toward the lower channel boundary (~65,000) or other major supports.

2. Daily Timeframe
1. Rising Wedge / Potential Breakdown
• Price has formed a rising wedge with nominal resistance near 108,000.
• A clear break below ~92,000–90,000 would confirm a wedge breakdown, which is bearish, possibly targeting much lower supports (e.g., 72,000 daily OB, 65,000 weekly channel).
2. Moving Averages & Ichimoku
• 50 > 100 > 200 SMA still shows a longer-term bullish outlook.
• Price, however, is below the 20 EMA; short MAs have been choppy due to consolidation.
• Ichimoku Cloud future is turning red, and the lagging span hovers around price—signals momentum may be fading.
3. Bollinger Bands & Market Structure
• BTC slipped under the daily Bollinger basis line and the bands are contracting, often a precursor to a significant price move.
• The wedge top at ~108,000 stands as the main upside barrier, while 92,000–90,000 is critical support that, if lost, likely confirms the wedge break.
4. Order Blocks & Key Levels
• Bullish OB around 92,000 helps define current support.
• The next major daily OB is at 72,000, aligned with prior structural levels. Losing 92k–90k support could open the path down to this deeper zone.
5. Momentum & Volatility
• RSI near 50; dropped to ~43 then recovered slightly—indicative of a neutral-to-bearish tone.
• MACD is in a modestly bearish phase; histogram is waning, reflecting a slow drift.
• ADX ~16, consistent with indecision/range conditions. +DMI < -DMI suggests mild bearish tilt.

Daily Conclusion: The rising wedge is a key pattern. A drop below 92,000–90,000 would confirm a bearish breakdown, potentially triggering a move toward the 72,000 daily OB or even lower. Conversely, pushing above 108,000 would invalidate the wedge breakdown scenario and resume the uptrend.

3. 4-Hour Timeframe
1. Descending Trendline & Bearish Structure
• The 4H chart shows lower lows, lower highs. Price is attempting to retest a descending trendline near 102,000–103,000.
• Shorter MAs are arranged in a bearish fashion (10 < 50 < 100 < 200), and price dipped under the 200 SMA before bouncing.
2. Ichimoku & Indicators
• Price is below the 4H Ichimoku Cloud, with the lagging span also below price—indicating 4H bearish momentum.
• RSI rebounded from oversold to ~54, a technical bounce within a broader downtrend.
• MACD turned bullish (crossover) but remains below zero, suggesting a corrective upswing rather than a trend reversal.
3. Order Blocks & Volume Profile
• A previously bullish OB around 100,000 has been broken; 105,000–106,000 overhead stands as the next major supply zone.
• POC near 104,000 in the 4H chart, aligning with descending trendline resistance.

4H Conclusion: Short-term momentum leans bearish. Any rally into 102,000–105,000 faces strong overhead supply. A break above 105,000 is required to shift the 4H bias back to bullish.

4. Sub-4H (2H & 30-Min Highlights)
• 2H Chart:
• Price retested the descending channel resistance near 102k–103k and the 200 SMA from below.
• The 2H MACD is green, but price remains in a lower high, lower low pattern.
• The wedge’s lower boundary is visible, with 90k–92k acting as a key pivot.
• 30-Min Chart:
• Stalling near a local bearish OB ~102,000. A break above 102k–103k could extend the bounce, but the broader structure still warns of a potential wedge breakdown on higher timeframes.

Corrected Trade Setups

(A) Bearish Continuation (Short)
• Scenario: Price rejects the descending trendline (~102k–103k) and breaks back below 100k, confirming the short-term downtrend.
• Entry Trigger: Bearish rejection candles or a break below intraday support (~100k).
• Stop-Loss: Above 104k–105k to account for volatility.
• Targets:
1. 92k–90k (lower wedge boundary / daily OB).
2. If wedge breaks, watch for a quick drop toward 72k (next major daily OB).

(B) Intraday Bounce Play (High Risk)
• Scenario: BTC breaks above the descending trendline and 4H Ichimoku Cloud top (~103k–105k).
• Entry Trigger: 4H close above 105k, accompanied by bullish volume.
• Stop-Loss: Below 102k or the breakout candle’s midpoint.
• Targets:
1. 107k–108k (wedge top).
2. Should BTC clear 108k, it may reenter a strong bullish phase, potentially retesting 110k+.

(C) Deeper Correction Long (Updated)
• Scenario: Price breaks the wedge by losing 90k–92k, turning near-term structure bearish. Ultimately, BTC finds support at deeper levels such as 72k (major daily OB) or even the weekly channel near 65k.
• Entry Trigger: Oversold RSI and bullish reversal patterns on high timeframes (e.g., daily or weekly).
• Stop-Loss: Below the chosen support zone (e.g., ~70k if entering around 72k).
• Targets:
1. Recovery to 90k–92k, then possibly 100k if the market reestablishes momentum.
2. Longer-term reclaim of 108k if the macro bull trend revives.

Note: A break below the wedge is inherently bearish; the idea behind (C) is waiting for a much deeper retracement to historically significant support areas (72k or 65k) that could still keep BTC in a broader macro uptrend on the highest timeframes, depending on price action and fundamental catalysts.

Risk Management & Final Thoughts
1. Macro vs. Micro: The weekly uptrend remains intact as long as price is within or above the large channel (~65k bottom). However, a wedge breakdown on the daily is typically bearish short-to-mid term.
2. Critical Levels:
• 90k–92k: The last daily bullish order block before a wedge breakdown scenario unfolds.
• 72k: Next key daily OB if the wedge breaks—this could serve as a deeper correction target.
• 65k: Weekly channel support, a historically important pivot.
3. Volatility: ATR remains elevated, so watch for swift moves once a break occurs (above 105k or below 90k).
4. Fundamental Catalysts: Bitcoin is susceptible to macro risk sentiment, liquidity injections, and major news events. Keep an eye on market-wide developments.

Disclaimer: This technical analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always perform independent research and manage your risk diligently.