A Fibonacci Case for 250K BTC in 2021
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Using a weekly chart from the beginning of price discovery in logarithmic view, I found some very interesting confluences using Fibonacci Retracements, Time-based Fibonacci, and a Gann Box . Starting all three tools at 1/3/2009 and price point zero, connecting the dots backwards in time based on the cycle tops of 2013 and 2017 I was able to discover the time-based cycle and the price based cycle with a confluence of both time and price. It seems that the following things occur:
- After the first halving date, the future halving dates and mid-cycle dates align exactly on, or extremely close to Fibonacci numbers.
- After the 2013 top, the trend defined itself inside of the 0 and 1.0 Fibonacci channel which was a fractal of the 0 fib and 0.236 retracements from the tops of cycle II & III
- After overlaying the Gann box with time-based Fibonacci arc's displayed, All three previous cycle tops and bottoms fit nicely within support and resistance inside the upper channel.
- By plotting the dates halfway between the halving dates, it showed that the price tends to cross the 0.5 Fibonacci line both times during cycle II & III at nearly the exact date.
- Because of Bitcoins stock to flow ratio and fixed supply, I believe that time is more important than price. So, the precision in which the halving dates align with Fibonacci numbers lead me to believe that the
retracement levels and arcs are valid.
- I removed the 50-day moving average, but it is interesting to note that the price never fell below it during the bull part of the cycles
I've heard price predictions for 2021 at anywhere between 221K and 330K from several people (Max Keiser, 1trillionUSD, Tone Vays) I follow and research. I trade using Wyckoff principles and Demark Sequential indicators, but I do strongly believe in cycles. with Bitcoin , I think that the Fibonacci based information that's available to us can almost pinpoint to some degree where its price point will be in monthly time frames.
The next step for me is to try and apply some principles I'm trying to learn from the Spiral Calendar studies by Chris Carolan. I would not be surprised if the 27-year cycle and Bitcoin have a close relationship in conjunction with this chart. Based on the spiral calendar reading, 43 moon phases from the cycle III top is July 9th 2021. ( New Moon ) 1299 days from 12/17/2017 is a Fibonacci number. Also 3.618 x 365.25 days = 1321 days. Somehow this is all related.
July could be a very interesting month for Bitcoin .
- After the first halving date, the future halving dates and mid-cycle dates align exactly on, or extremely close to Fibonacci numbers.
- After the 2013 top, the trend defined itself inside of the 0 and 1.0 Fibonacci channel which was a fractal of the 0 fib and 0.236 retracements from the tops of cycle II & III
- After overlaying the Gann box with time-based Fibonacci arc's displayed, All three previous cycle tops and bottoms fit nicely within support and resistance inside the upper channel.
- By plotting the dates halfway between the halving dates, it showed that the price tends to cross the 0.5 Fibonacci line both times during cycle II & III at nearly the exact date.
- Because of Bitcoins stock to flow ratio and fixed supply, I believe that time is more important than price. So, the precision in which the halving dates align with Fibonacci numbers lead me to believe that the
retracement levels and arcs are valid.
- I removed the 50-day moving average, but it is interesting to note that the price never fell below it during the bull part of the cycles
I've heard price predictions for 2021 at anywhere between 221K and 330K from several people (Max Keiser, 1trillionUSD, Tone Vays) I follow and research. I trade using Wyckoff principles and Demark Sequential indicators, but I do strongly believe in cycles. with Bitcoin , I think that the Fibonacci based information that's available to us can almost pinpoint to some degree where its price point will be in monthly time frames.
The next step for me is to try and apply some principles I'm trying to learn from the Spiral Calendar studies by Chris Carolan. I would not be surprised if the 27-year cycle and Bitcoin have a close relationship in conjunction with this chart. Based on the spiral calendar reading, 43 moon phases from the cycle III top is July 9th 2021. ( New Moon ) 1299 days from 12/17/2017 is a Fibonacci number. Also 3.618 x 365.25 days = 1321 days. Somehow this is all related.
July could be a very interesting month for Bitcoin .
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