A TA Macro Look into Bitcoin to assess direction

This is a look into the macro developments happening currently in Bitcoin.
This is strictly a TA look into the big picture. We zoom out to Timeframes bigger than 1W.
At times zooming in to check (3 Day, 5 Day, maybe 1D) for potential swing trades.

I tend to look into things like price action, indicators, volume and other data to sway probabilities of where an asset may go and determine best opportunities of supply and demand zones based on my interpretations.

So jumping right in this is a look into price action on the 1 Month timeframe.

Notice trend lines drawn.
Notice the Ascending channel.
Notice the Blue rectangle zone.
Notice this months (June) Candle

Our current June candle is in a critical area.
We are around the horizontal resistance zone, indicated by red horizontal line.
This red horizontal resistance line is a powerful one.
Our previous interaction generated a massive Bearish engulfing monthly candle.
This area is not to be joked with and would urge to consider looking for more signs or better data to support continuation of bull run. If not a sell off is in the cards.

Notice our current June candle
Having equal length upper and lower wicks indicate that this month was neutral.
Bulls nor the Bears came on top.

If we close around this in 8 days.
Probabilities would be 50/50 just based on price action and candles for price movement in July.
We would need to look for other signs in indicators or something else, in other words look for confluence of multiple signs whether bull or bear.

The Ascending channel is also in my opinion over extended.
Notice the price action touch points on Green ascending support line.
The duration between touches is coming down.

2nd touch happened 365 days after first. Which was the initial part of Crypto bull market.

3rd touch happened 214 days after.

We are currently 61 days in after 3rd touch. Considering this and being logical, we could be getting close to another touch.

But consider also that the duration can extend well into in the 100's (of days), before we touch.

Notice also the Blue rectangle zone. This marks a side ways range of bitcoin.

The orange horizontal line is mid point of this blue zone.
A scenario could be that price goes to where the orange horizontal line meets the green sloping support line.
The confluence of these 2 support lines, can be a decent area for potential bounce (which can be temporary).

A break down of these 2 lines could also lead Bitcoin back down to the lower border of the Blue rectangle also indicated by Green horizontal line, which is a massive supply zone at the moment.
This scenario in my opinion would be a high probability trade by looking for bounce up but please keep in mind this does not mean a bull run would continue.

Look for more posts as things develop on Bitcoin.

DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.