the more likely scenario

compare the moves in june 2014 and our latest leg up. (yellow fractal)

the moves preceding it are very similar as well. same hidden bull div. rsi levels were similar.

compare the action in the red fractals. so if our local bottom at $249 bitstamp holds, then we know what is likely to happen.

should look at weekly chart as well.

after changing the scale to linear and redrawing measured move boxes. the june 2014 price moved 43.4% of the box. extrapolating that, gives me a price target of $276 that we shud hit end of this month or early next month.

if i was to extrapolate fibonacci retracement ratios i would get a target of $303 to $340