extensive analysis
Güncellendi
1) trend
We have a very shallow parallel channel from the top of the up-move
A very steep descending channel from that last down move
And a more shallow descending channel (from top of 5 to b, and starting at the bottom of 4)
They are intersecting in the mid 6200 (around 6260)
2) support and resistance
6450 was our main support, it had hold several attempt, now a resistance
6680 always was a resistance and still is
6325 to 6266 is the main support now, made from the peak of the double bottom + the top of 1 and the low of 2
3)supply/demand
Based of those lines, their is the supply area highlighted in red
And the demand zone in blue
A break above or below would be respectively bullish and bearish
Seeing candle wick and shadow in those area would indicate reversal
Sideway price action would likely happen in between those range
4)Elliot wave
we have to eliminate the double bottom as a wave 1, overlap and ratio doesn't match
if this is a wave 2, we a now around fib 0.5, and should expect lower, such as fib 0.6 at 6230.
fib 0.7 is at 6080, that's a bit too low in my opinion and there is no other support there
5)indicators
Macd is still printing lower low
On Balance Volume is also printing lower low (looking for a bounce at the blue line)
Money flow has turned negative on all time frame.
RSI is oversold
I don't see anything positive here yet and that would indicate one lower low to happen, and then to start looking for a divergence
BB has been pierced by the long H4 candle, the median is around 6600, waiting for it to contract, perhaps a bounce there would be possible
6)candle pattern
A doji just formed, not a strong sign, but if the current candle were to turn green, we would have a morning star and that would indicate some sort of reversal
Such move would also turn the daily into a hammer (or more like the inverse of what we had on top)
7)Gap
There has been a gap between 6030 and 5900, if price were to fail, that would be the next area to look at
You can see it with the double arrow next to it on my chart
8)TDTL
With price breaking down at 6650, target was around 6280 haven't touched it yet, but we are close
If we break below 6225, 5900 would become an option depending on follow up price action
9)pattern
We could form a diamond pattern from here, the left side fit nicely, and we had two sharp peaks, this would play out in my sideways zone (not highlighted)
And that inverse head and shoulder, well unless on balance volume and money flow were to turn and remain positive from here, it's not likely.
It doesn't mean we won't go up and it doesn't mean it won't look like one but the HNS target won't be valid.
I don't see any triangle or diagonal, so no sign of this being the last move or second to last move in either direction
10)Conclusion
6280 is a strong support area, i think price should test it and i think it should hold.
i think we'll see some long sideway within the area i mentioned and up to the timeframe of the vertical 2 line
At which point if 6280 doesn't hold, 5900 is next
if it does or if we break above 6650, bullish target are back in play
Good luck and happy trading !
And lastly, i totally underestimated this move down sorry, and stay cautious !
We have a very shallow parallel channel from the top of the up-move
A very steep descending channel from that last down move
And a more shallow descending channel (from top of 5 to b, and starting at the bottom of 4)
They are intersecting in the mid 6200 (around 6260)
2) support and resistance
6450 was our main support, it had hold several attempt, now a resistance
6680 always was a resistance and still is
6325 to 6266 is the main support now, made from the peak of the double bottom + the top of 1 and the low of 2
3)supply/demand
Based of those lines, their is the supply area highlighted in red
And the demand zone in blue
A break above or below would be respectively bullish and bearish
Seeing candle wick and shadow in those area would indicate reversal
Sideway price action would likely happen in between those range
4)Elliot wave
we have to eliminate the double bottom as a wave 1, overlap and ratio doesn't match
if this is a wave 2, we a now around fib 0.5, and should expect lower, such as fib 0.6 at 6230.
fib 0.7 is at 6080, that's a bit too low in my opinion and there is no other support there
5)indicators
Macd is still printing lower low
On Balance Volume is also printing lower low (looking for a bounce at the blue line)
Money flow has turned negative on all time frame.
RSI is oversold
I don't see anything positive here yet and that would indicate one lower low to happen, and then to start looking for a divergence
BB has been pierced by the long H4 candle, the median is around 6600, waiting for it to contract, perhaps a bounce there would be possible
6)candle pattern
A doji just formed, not a strong sign, but if the current candle were to turn green, we would have a morning star and that would indicate some sort of reversal
Such move would also turn the daily into a hammer (or more like the inverse of what we had on top)
7)Gap
There has been a gap between 6030 and 5900, if price were to fail, that would be the next area to look at
You can see it with the double arrow next to it on my chart
8)TDTL
With price breaking down at 6650, target was around 6280 haven't touched it yet, but we are close
If we break below 6225, 5900 would become an option depending on follow up price action
9)pattern
We could form a diamond pattern from here, the left side fit nicely, and we had two sharp peaks, this would play out in my sideways zone (not highlighted)
And that inverse head and shoulder, well unless on balance volume and money flow were to turn and remain positive from here, it's not likely.
It doesn't mean we won't go up and it doesn't mean it won't look like one but the HNS target won't be valid.
I don't see any triangle or diagonal, so no sign of this being the last move or second to last move in either direction
10)Conclusion
6280 is a strong support area, i think price should test it and i think it should hold.
i think we'll see some long sideway within the area i mentioned and up to the timeframe of the vertical 2 line
At which point if 6280 doesn't hold, 5900 is next
if it does or if we break above 6650, bullish target are back in play
Good luck and happy trading !
And lastly, i totally underestimated this move down sorry, and stay cautious !
Not
still need to breakout, but here are those divergence
and the last candle is an outside bar too.
looking up now i think
Not
i don't believe this attempt will work, i think PA needs to glide back down to 6260-6280 first
Not
just like that.
And now we got an extra double bottom in the reversal sleeves
Not
BTCUSD:shorts has been going down, so we probably gonna have a bearish and choppy looking sideway movement over the next few hourly candle. In the 6300-6350 range.Which will result in a reaccumulation of those short position (with loose SL to avoid being stop hunt by the choppy PA), and that should produce a decent spike up once price move against them
Not
That the choppy PA, see all those whicks ? Trigger-limit shorts being activated, while price slowly grind above.
The blue is BTCUSD:shorts, going up as planned, but price remains stable
We setting up for a squeeze to my target
Once that's done, once we are out of the blue zone, 6350-6400 will remain a support for time being.
Daily candle looks good, so does RSI and money flow. Well i'd even say this diamond pattern could play out.
Not
This is the bearish scenario we need to be aware of.
If this is a wave 2, it could correct near fib 0.7 around 5900
If this is an ABC, it could extend to 1.6 in a C wave, around 5900
If we have a diamond top (reversal something like 75% of the time), it would go to aground 6000
If price go back through the TL on the left, we would see 5900
Several alts, have reached that level, even Iota which had the most similar price action to BTC (despite a double bottom)
The thing is, for the HnS to be validated we want rising volume
But for the diamond top to be invalidated (and price to go up), we wouldn't want that.
If stochastic does what i draw, it would be a very negative sign.
This is one of those scenario where for price to go up, we would want 2 opposite things to happen.
So i think instead of playing the patterns, it is wiser to play the breakout of either the blue or red S/R
Feragatname
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