BTCUSD: Don't Fall Asleep. 10400 Resistance Still In Sight?

14 Mar 2018

BTCUSD update: Extremely uneventful price action is now in progress which is very unusual for this market. Hovering just above the newly established bullish trend line, I interpret this activity as an absence of weakness which lends a more bullish bias to this market.

Slow markets that go nowhere can be very confusing, especially if you make the mistake of looking at smaller time frames. Often when markets trade like this, participants are waiting for something. The Goldman Sachs attempt to pull the rug from under this market only highlights its strength in the form of an absence of selling. Weak markets do not waste time, they break support levels and quickly which is not happening. Like I wrote in my previous report, evaluating price action is about what the market IS doing and what it is NOT doing.

The 8659 level is not only a reversal zone boundary, it is now part of the rising trend line established off of the 8342 low. Also the 8174 to 4983 support zone (.618 area of entire bullish structure) is just below which again points to a higher possibility of attracting buyers.

Market context is a variable that is often overlooked by inexperienced traders. It comes in many forms, but on a chart, it includes factors like location, broad price structures and levels. Even though you can make an argument for a lower high in this situation, when viewed in light of the current context, you can make a stronger argument for a higher low in my opinion. So what is the best action to take in such a situation? No action, until the market reveals its intent.

This market needs a strong catalyst to spark the bullish momentum which will be confirmed once price closes above 9616 decisively. IF it can do that, I would expect a push to retest 10422 within reason. The other scenario I am watching for is another failed low or fake out where price retests 8174 and reverses back up quickly. I do not know if any of these scenarios will happen, but I will be prepared in case they do. The market will eventually choose.

In summary, quiet markets are actually a very good thing. They can offer opportunities that are not obvious to the herd just yet, which is the kind you want for longer term strategies. They not only offer a more stable environment to build and manage a position in, but they also offer a clear definition of short term risk. When viewed in light of the current context, a quiet market is a sign of strength because based on structure and news, this market should be going lower. Even if more bearish news comes out, and the herd reacts, I think that will only create more buying opportunities. The only factor that can keep you in this game, especially during very uncertain moments like this is your relationship with risk. If you are scared of losing, you will lose. If you are not scared to lose, you may still lose, but you also open yourself to the possibility of a win. The ability to take a loss is what keeps you from getting shaken out or second guessing in environments like this, not formations on a chart. This does not mean you should be irresponsible, it means you should always be considering what kind of risk you can comfortably take.

Questions and comments welcome.