July 6, 2022 BTCUSD - Ranging, waiting for momentum to show up.

6 Tem 2022

1. Chico span is flat, showing no real momentum in any direction. Once chikou span starts running into price, you can typically expect a directional movement. Chikou span does not often run through price as Chikou span is 26 days in the past, which means that price has been ranging for the last 26 days when Chikou crosses over price.

2. Price is creating symmetry around Tenkan, and we do not see higher highs or higher lows. Price is consolidating within a range and will eventually break out in one direction, and momentum signals can help gauge which way price breaks out.

3. The Kumo cloud is shrinking, which means less volatility, but we still have Kumo span A pointed down in a bearish direction with Kumo span B showing no movement (flat). Price is well below both spans and shows no signs of engaging the cloud unless we soon see a break to the upside.

4. The volume momentum is dropping compared to the high of June 13. We also see the momentum oscillator showing a downward movement.

Momentum analysis shows that we are in a range and will need to break out of the last fractal (orange line) or below the strong support (aqua line) before we see any momentum changes. Since we are in a downtrend and the Macro markets are still not in good shape, we can assume the probability is more downside. The only thing holding the price up is powerful support of 20k. When support has been tested multiple times, it can break down while orders fill at that level. The more we test the 20k levels, the more chance there is of it flipping to resistance and price staying under it.

We stay neutral until we see a sign of directional momentum.