BTCSUD ideas stream...rollercoaster of love

16 Mar 2018

So...this is a placce where I'll be posting some ideas on BTC. What I see...sometimes what I think will happen...but mostly this is a place for LEARNING. I'm new. I'm a noob. But beside the prospect of making $$$ this whole trading thing, this analysis and market reading has really captured my imagination. What a tool it is to be able to read market sentiment based on some pretty lines and beautiful colours! Sometimes....we can even predict where sentiment is heading and how that relates to price action.
I toyed with the idea of doing this privately (many of you will think I should have)...but why not make it an open forum. if you are a noob too...join in. Lets teach each other something. Maybe you are an OG and you wan to school us? That is also very welcome.

I have for sometime now thought, for no other reason than it looks to me to be pre-parabolic madness, that we would pull back into a trend line from around April to Sept 2017. My fib retracement is setup from Sept low to all time high and my pitch fork is setup from Sept low to 6k low and 11.7k candle in Feb (the chart is on weekly). That line is now on shaky ground. I believe my fib setup works. There has been alot of action around the 62 and the 38 (or I should say in between). However my pitchfork is now being tested.

Am I prepared to call up or down? No. Funny times right now. Lots of jumping up and down in price. Lots of manipulation from shorts trying to clear out longs and vice versa. There is a real game of cat and mouse being played out and the players are far more talented than I. For my money (which is what it is) we wait and see.

16 Mar 2018

Not

Zooming in on the daily lets use a bit of hindsight (ok, all hindsight) to see how things have panned out for us thus far. if you are an uber noob, know nothing, then great, this might be interesting (though not anything you probably can't also learn elsewhere). if you are schooled on this stuff...then sorry...sh*t is about to get boring.

Crypto twitter lit up not long ago with regard to an inverted head and shoulders pattern. We all watched on with abated breath to see if we could break up past the neck line (a bullish sign). What a moment it was. The downward resistance line that we could not break past (on log), the 50% fib line and the neck line all converged at once. Think an epic battle scene in Lord of the rings or something like that.

The bulls lost.

The downward force was too much and we retraced to the 62 fib. We failed again to pass the 50 fib and our inverted head and shoulder attempt turned into a double top (a bearish sign). Momentum and confidence left us and we began to retrace. Then, like the kick in the bolloocks it was, the whole Mt Gox FUD (look it up) happened and we came down with force. There were many in the FA (fundamental Analysis) world who, I think, out of frustration, wanted to stick it to us TA (technical analysis) guys...thing is, as stated, we bounced off of the 50 fib line a day or 2 earlier. We were going down. Now it was compounded.

We formed a bear flag right along the bottom line of our inner pitch fork channel and fell to its very edges. Right now we tip-toe along its last line.

Man on a wire.

16 Mar 2018

Not

So lets move into the now. Right here, right now (good tune). 4hr chart.

We know we fell out of our bear flag (of course) and shot down to the outer limits of our pitch fork. I thought it had failed me.....

......then we got a slight bounce! Ok maybe not that exciting. We fell to around 7.6k and almost...not perfectly...formed a bullish abandoned baby candle. technically it wasn't. Maybe it was something else? Never-the-less (that looks wrong) it worked. We pulled back into the pitchfork and look at that...again we are tip toeing along it..once in a while dipping our toe into the murky water below.

is that just another bear flag you ask...well..i'm not sure (if ya know, please let us know too!). It could be. The sentiment is bearish right? Who is your friend? Trend is. Trend is your friend.

But maybe, just maybe, we can gather a bit of upward momentum. Our friend the Wave trend oscillator (yougoogley it) is only just moving up out of the oversold area (green horizontal dotted and solid line is oversold, red is overbought) and our fast moving average (green curvey line) is passing up and over, from underneath, the slower moving average (red curvey line).

I think this would be a good sign...if it weren't for the volatility in the market right now. Might make for good short term trades, but long term, lets not get excited.

16 Mar 2018

Not

SO WHAT NEXT!? Well, I wont get brave here. For me, TA is about probabilities and being prepared for what 'next' might bring. Sure, there are likelihoods and there are even those that can look into their TA crystal balls and make more ballsy calls. Not me. I am going to wait and see what 'THIS' does. it may be forming an ascending triangle, that would coincide with our pitchfork. if it does and it plays true. We will (should) make a run at the 62 fib. If it breaks down or we form a bearish pennant instead, then we will (.....should...) fall to the 78.6. At that point we are again searching deep for support, we want volume BIG VOLUME, like we had back in Feb.

Segue.

Volume is key here. We want another clear indication we have hit the bottom. Big beautiful spikes in volume. Big ole' green candles. if we do go back to around 6k and we do bounce in a big way again...then who knows...is that a big double bottom? The kind some have been waiting for? Confirmation? Maybe. Let's hope.

All eyes on 'THIS'. What does it do. Don't be first. Don't be last. Lets see what it does.

17 Mar 2018

Not

Ok....see 'THIS'? Well 'THIS' is starting to look a lot like 'THAT'. Our trend line..or I should say the outer limit of the pitchfork is holding. The chart is good. But that doesn't mean it will hold.

We are forming a Bear Flag...no way to sugar coat it. If you are a hodler, then viewer discretion is advised, as technically (this is technical analysis), we should fall out of that flag.

That doesn't mean we take a short position right now. BTC can do crazy things....but it is looking likely.

As we go down (if we go down), there will be a lot of action. We aren't trying to pick the bottom here. But expect heavy action from around 7k and on.

But do not get hasty, if we fall out of the pitchfork, we can pull back in. It would not be the first false breakout to occur, look for confirmation.

If the pitchfork holds (not only will i kiss it but) I will have supreme confidence in it. Lets wait and see. Look for confirmed movement. Then make some moves.

19 Mar 2018

Not

So we fell....momentarily at least. We did not fall to our target area, we fell a few hundred dollars short.

What does it all mean though? Well, IMO, probably not a lot. Long term, or on a grander scale if you will, our meant trend, our pitchfork, continues doesn't it? We have thus far, again dipped our toe into the murky water below and decided to stay on dry land. The exact coordinates of our pitch fork may be off, but I am supremely confident in its trajectory now. It is clear that when we move sideways we move along it's lines.

A move upward toward the inner green channel will put us once again on a collision course with our resistance line. BTC is being squeezed in between the upward force of the support and downward force of the resistance. Throw the 62 fib in for good measure and we are in for another battle royale.

If you are looking for trades then long to the 62 fib is what I would do with tight stops (but im a noob). I expect more toe dipping in this squeeze. Our indicators look OK and are primed for some upward momentum. But hey...this is BTC.

25 Mar 2018

Not

I'm sure you already know. I'm sure you read it on twitter. I'm sure you talk about it at work. Critical s*it is about to play out with BTC.

There are good signs and there are bad signs. Yin is battling Yang. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market. This consolidation, if that is what it is has played out longer than many predicted.

What do we see. Well, we see our trendline, or trend channel, in the form of a pitchfork, is holding. Just. Still. Man on a wire. Still. At this rate, at this trajectory, we have about a week before we hit our long standing resistance line.

We could be forming a symmetrical triangle, hence the H's and L's. We have been forming lower highs and higher lows for some time now. it fits the definition. Im am uncertain if I have started at the correct point though, if you know please chime in. As this may be critical as to whether it is a bearish or bullish signal. I guess confirmation will tell us.

Our trusty ichimoku cloud is back and she has a lot to tell us. Clearly, as marked by the circles, whilst we were above the cloud the kijun (red line) acted as support. Once we fell through the cloud it has acted as resistance. In fact it has acted as resistance the moment we had a KT cross (tenkan dropped below kijun, think of it as a faster moving average dropping below the slower). We are yet to close above it after falling below it. This is now critical. On the other hand we have now had a TK cross (tenkan has come up over the kijun, a bullish signal) though it is considered a weak cross as it happened below the cloud.

We have to hold this. The symmetrical triangle may play out. I think the squeeze comes between our pitch fork outer limit, where we sit now, and our resistance line.

Hold pitchfork, hold!

3 Nis 2018

Not

...Sorry for the silent airwaves. Easter, been sick, works busy, yada yada yada. Nothing major right? As we knew once we fell out of that pitchfork with confirmation, we were gonna come down with some force. We did just that. In fact enough force to move our triangle too.
So we now have a new second low and our triangle is looking more descending than anything else (dun dun duuuun).
My chart should be pretty clear, I think it plays out like this:
We look like forming another IH&S. The bounce off the resistance line sets us up for the right shoulder perfectly. If we can break that resistance line on return we will also break the neck line. Two very good signs and we should see some decent long action.
Or.....we fail to break both in which case we fall again I am afraid. This time I think we absolutely go searching for the bottom between 5 and 6k.
No crystal balls. We can only be prepared.
What are your thoughts?
Happy hunting.

5 Nis 2018

Not

Mini rally and any potential for I H&S squashed by that red candle. Ouch.
It was a suckers rally I guess but man did they shut that one down quickly.
Not great volume, its all trading. Its all margin trading still. People 'stop hunting'. This is not a retail buy or sell off.
Hard to predict price right now but given each rally has less steam I feel its time to call some short action beyond the lows we have recently seen. Bear flag right now on the 1, 2, 4hr chart. Daily and 4 hr says we are not oversold yet. Think we will fall again and with some orders recently cleared in the low to mid 6's, I think we can push toward 5 to 5.5k now.

7 Nis 2018

Not

Sorry, posted this as a comment accidentally.
Ha! Have you noticed how many guys are very very quiet when it comes to calling BTCUSD action? Tough gig right now. I mean look at the recent action. BTC looked nothing short of shite.
Hey presto we popped! Why?
There are theories. One is accumulation. I do not know a great deal about this other than the idea is that a large entity, perhaps a financial institution is trying to accumulate BTC without causing slippage (slippage is when the price shoots up off a buy price. So imagine you are tasked with buying 200 million dollars worth of BTC. That is a lot and hard to fill. You start buying some at Bittrex and because the demand starts outstripping supply the price starts moving up. You buy more and it keeps going. That is slippage). I guess it could be this. Would there not be more volume though? Im not sure. It could just be the good ole game of cat and mouse. Longs liquidating shorts. Shorts liquidating longs. We popped off a Bear Pennant....I mean come on hehe that left a lot of shorts aching to be liquidated. The manipulation in BTC right now is epic. It could all tie into the accumulation. It could be one and the same.
Enough with the tin foil hat.
Lets look at the chart. Please keep in mind this a space to spit ball BTC ideas..not make solid calls. If you want to join in feel free.
The chart.
We might...just maybe....form an Adam and Eve double bottom here. We would need to break past the grey line to confirm breakout. Its just an idea and something to watch also.

8 Nis 2018

Not

This fractal could play out in the short term. Move through channel b4 breaking up to previous support/resistance line, where it would need to move sideways (which it will if it hits 7.5k, we will not rocket past that) in order to continue to complete Adam and Eve bottom (as per previous update).

8 Nis 2018

Not

Also same fractal in early April, around 2nd 3rd of april.