BITCOIN 1W MACD Bearish Cross but 50k end-of-year possible!

22 May 2023

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to show strong similarities with the 2015/16 Cycle, which is something we first posted almost a year ago when the market made the June Low. Right now BTC is about to complete a Bearish Cross on the 1W LMACD, the first since April 2022. Even though that's a technically bearish signal, during Bull Cycles it is a sign of a medium-term consolidation.

In relation to 2015/16 in particular, the 1W LMACD Bearish Cross that took place in mid January 2016, was formed right after a strong pull-back to Fibonacci 0.382 and a steady rise/ consolidation started that broke out when a 1W candle closed above the 0.5 Fibonacci. The 1W MA100 (green trend-line) was in Support during that phase.

Today, the 1W MA100 is the Resistance, sitting right on the 0.5 Fibonacci level, while it was the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) that supported the pull-back two weeks ago to the 0.382 Fibonacci. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the Bull Cycle's standard Support, is considerably lower on the 0.236 Fibonacci ($22000).

It is interesting to mention that the date range from the LMACD's bottom to the Bearish Cross on the 2015/16 Cycle, measured 49 weeks (343 days), while in 2022/23 it is 45 weeks (315 days), showing yet again remarkable signs of symmetry.

All the above data suggest that we may have a summer of consolidation ahead within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fibonacci Zone, but as Bitcoin in 2016 later broke out towards the 0.786 Fib, an end-of-the-year target near 50k is very much plausible.

But what do you think? Is this a good Accumulation Phase for BTC based on the above model in anticipation of $50000 towards 2024? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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