The day job is microbiology researcher, and I'll be taking the skills to run a case study on my biggest question surrounding Bitcoin... why the early top?
Options: manipulation, COVID, or it was always expected April 2021 retail just missed it.
Here's what I've come up with:
Starting with fundamental Bitcoin action.
Bitcoin has been developing channel floors since the first rally 2011 to 2013 top. During the 2014-2015 bear market. Bitcoin reached to touch the 1W 200MA at 200$. It had to break through the previous channel floor. The break of the channel floor led to a ceiling being created (the old floor), and a new floor where most touches were starting to accumulate.
The 2015-2017 bullrun propelled to 19500$ and tapped the top of the ceiling (old floor) the price proceeded to enter a bear market after tapping the ceiling. Again, the price had to break through this channel floor to tap the 1W 200ma at the end of 2018. Thus a new floor developed and a ceiling was made out of the previous floor.
2019 flipped the script. I think it was an early test of this long term TA that was developing. Bitcoin would likely not be able to defeat the TA later in the cycle in 2021 as it would be a target for profit. Thus bitcoin price pushed hard into the ceiling by June 2019. It kept pushing through slightly. But ultimately rejected. I'll call this event the minibull.
After the rejection bitcoin proceeded into a completing steps in the process of dumping to the 1W 200MA. As a rule, when Bitcoin taps the ceiling, it will go to touch the 1W 200MA. As it happened in early 2020, Bitcoin price was just completing the retest of the 2019 minibull bullish trendline. It already rejected. Now price was free to touch the 1W 200MA.
Here's where covid comes in. What was going to be a hideously slow 4-6month dump to the 1W 200MA. All of a sudden we dumped to hit it in 1 month. Most projections for the 2021 bitcoin bullrun expected an October high. Had COVID not accelerated the timing of tapping the 1W 200MA, I believe October would have been the top. But life happens. And now all cycles may be forever altered.
All you can do now is wait and play the waves on the way to the 1W 200MA.
Then something new hapoened
Options: manipulation, COVID, or it was always expected April 2021 retail just missed it.
Here's what I've come up with:
Starting with fundamental Bitcoin action.
Bitcoin has been developing channel floors since the first rally 2011 to 2013 top. During the 2014-2015 bear market. Bitcoin reached to touch the 1W 200MA at 200$. It had to break through the previous channel floor. The break of the channel floor led to a ceiling being created (the old floor), and a new floor where most touches were starting to accumulate.
The 2015-2017 bullrun propelled to 19500$ and tapped the top of the ceiling (old floor) the price proceeded to enter a bear market after tapping the ceiling. Again, the price had to break through this channel floor to tap the 1W 200ma at the end of 2018. Thus a new floor developed and a ceiling was made out of the previous floor.
2019 flipped the script. I think it was an early test of this long term TA that was developing. Bitcoin would likely not be able to defeat the TA later in the cycle in 2021 as it would be a target for profit. Thus bitcoin price pushed hard into the ceiling by June 2019. It kept pushing through slightly. But ultimately rejected. I'll call this event the minibull.
After the rejection bitcoin proceeded into a completing steps in the process of dumping to the 1W 200MA. As a rule, when Bitcoin taps the ceiling, it will go to touch the 1W 200MA. As it happened in early 2020, Bitcoin price was just completing the retest of the 2019 minibull bullish trendline. It already rejected. Now price was free to touch the 1W 200MA.
Here's where covid comes in. What was going to be a hideously slow 4-6month dump to the 1W 200MA. All of a sudden we dumped to hit it in 1 month. Most projections for the 2021 bitcoin bullrun expected an October high. Had COVID not accelerated the timing of tapping the 1W 200MA, I believe October would have been the top. But life happens. And now all cycles may be forever altered.
All you can do now is wait and play the waves on the way to the 1W 200MA.
Then something new hapoened
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