BITCOINS BULLISH AND BEARISH OUTLOOK

In my previously post, I did look at price action on multiple time frames. In this post I would like to look at price action on a higher (monthly) time frame.

Price took out the $6k psychological support down to the $3k psychological support area 3 months ago.
The bounce from this area and the current market sentiment around this area....especially because this area is a confluence of 50 month MA and 200 week MA support, which is often a major psychological support zone accross many markets....tells us that the market perceives this area as a possible reversal zone for an uptrend, and this is a positive signal for buyers.

However, caution should be our watch word when calling the bottom here. A careful look at the monthly chart holistically, shows that price action may be forming the same pattern we saw at the $6k area before moving down....we saw a bounce in June 2018 in what looked like a bull trap at the $5800 level all the way to $8400, followed by months of consolidation before grinding down.

In my previous post I did say we are in wave 4 of the overall trend which comes with a complex consolidation (higher low & higher high) and if we confirm that we are having a fractal repetition, then I would say we have more downside to go, especially because we are seeing what looks like a bear flag on the monthly chart.

So long as we hold the $3650 support level, we might see a second Btc top where altcoin will grow most. I am expecting massive bulltrap to retest and possibly break above $4200 to complete wave 4, followed by a drop towards $3000. 

I expect to see a lower high formation after retesting $3000, a brief consolidation and a dump below 3000 level. If the $3000 psychological support breaks, the next key support level on the monthly is at $1260-$1060.

This is not to say we will get here, but remember this is a highly speculative market, so anything can happen.