Bitcoin has given up its gains made in the initial days of the year following a very strong performance last year. But in December, BTC/USD formed an inverted hammer candle at technically overbought levels, potentially providing a bearish signal for the early parts of this year.
Each time the monthly RSI has risen above 70.00 it has invariably dropped back because of a sell-off in BTC/USD rather than a mere consolidation. We could see another drop to work off its overbought conditions before the next bull run potentially starts in the months ahead.
What makes Bitcoin more interesting this time is the fact the bearish monthly signal has been formed around a major milestones of 100K.
If the December low of $91,271 breaks, and BTC holds below that level, then we could see the onset of a correction. While the dip could ultimately prove to be shallow this time because of the impact of Trump and Musk, prices could still dip towards long-term support levels such as 74K or even 65K. Should we get to these levels, I would then expect to see a potential low and the onset of another rally. But we will cross that bridge if and when we get there.
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