similar retracement 2017 prior to epic bull run

17 May 2021

take a look at what happened when BTC price approached the long term trendline in june of 2017 prior to the epic bull run.

18 May 2021

Not

ok i'm calling long here, and i put my money where my mouth is (and no, not because of the fun little comparison with 2017). here's why:

(1) i've been eyeing this 42K-$43k support level since we topped last month (see 4/19 BTC idea, i don't have it linked). it's a strong level. 3x buy pressure picks up right where 3x short pressure drops off. i don't think there are many traders who believe price will drop below $20k, so there's a strong case for 2x longs anywhere below $40k. yes there's a fair share of FUD in the air, but i don't see bears winning this one.

(2) big picture, i think the upside far outweighs the downside here. the most likely bearish scenario is -25% to -50% before the end of this year. but the bullish scenario is +200%. i'll take that bet.

19 May 2021

Not

buckle up, should be an epic fight here...

19 May 2021

Not

exactly 40% now. bulls nowhere to be found at the moment.

20 May 2021

Not

>50%. this tops any correction from the prior bull run. need to go all the way back to 2013 where there were a number of retracements >50%. back then, the market cap was 1000x smaller than it is now, so naturally impulses/corrections were more abrupt and more pronounced. this behemoth moves a lot slower than it used to (hard to believe).