HAPPY THANKSGIVING! Let's see Bitcoin's price on this date!

23 Kas 2023

Let me begin by wishing everyone in the TradingView community a Happy Thanksgiving! A day of joy, gathering and happy family moments!

Aren't you curious to see where the price of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was trading on this day in the previous years? If so, have a look:

2010: $0.28
2011: $2.49
2012: $12.51
2013: $813
2014: $376
2015: $328
2016: $739
2017: $8,771
2018: $4,015
2019: $7,150
2020: $18,764
2021: $58,927
2022: $16,353
2023: $37,000

So the obvious question is this. Do you see the pattern??

Since 2009 there have been 10 Thanksgiving dates where the price of BTC was higher than the previous year and only 4 where it was lower. Only once we've seen two straight red Thanksgivings and at least two green Thanksgiving dates follow. This year we have a green one, more than double the price of 2022 and in fact this is the first time BTC doubled coming from a red Thanksgiving since 2016.

An interesting pattern that arises on this chart is that when measuring the line that connects the Thanksgiving closer to the Cycle Top back to years, we can see that its angle is lower (naturally) by a certain rate. From 2015 to 2017 it measured the previous angle x 0.64. From 2019 to 2021 it was the previous angle x 0.68. From 2022 to 2024 based on this progressive pattern, is should be the previous angle x 0.72 (0.68 + 0.04). That gives us a rough value just under $80000 for the next Thanksgiving (November 28 2024). It is very possible that the Cycle top will be priced higher a few weeks after on an aggressive spike above 100k, as BTC often does (only the June 2011 Cycle Top was way off, being in the middle of two Thanksgivings).

But what do you think about this model and its projection? Are you expecting a BTC price around 80k on the next Thanksgiving and if not, what is your estimate? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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