BTC - Second leg

7 Eki 2021

Hello traders, so I was looking at the history of previous market cycles and focusing on the events that were happening towards around each market top. It was common to see that after a final parabolic run from BTC a pull back occurs. In this event Alts also bleed, however I also noticed that XRP had preformed well in 2013 at this stage and the same with ETH in 2018. Followed after a dead cat bounce by BTC almost immediately after the pull back which results in a lower ATH and then the real pullback of the bear market begins as BTC price action becomes weaker and weaker and its dominance in the market becomes stronger. When the prices crashed back in April and people were shouting bear market i remained sceptical. Moon boys were expecting an instant recovery and route to ATH. However, i remained short term bearish with long term bullish as can be seen from my previous analysis. This was the healthiest thing for the market as we were over extended and summer accumulation was extremely bullish. A dead cat bounce after a massive pullback is massive sell signal for me as it has flashed at the top of each cycle. This may be a potential route to a market top. This factual i captured after a 40% correction in the 2017 cycle. We may challenge ATH in October and then rejected, before another attempt in November and sky highs. I will be paying a very close attention to another pull back towards the upper part of this region. In the case of a pullback of +10-30% on the weekly we may have a coin in the top 6 currencies by market cap make a final move to the upside which I suspect may be Cardano in this cycle. Furthermore, a dead cat bounce scenario would confirm the market has reached its top and we are preparing for another bear market. I believe a 130-150k top for BTC this cycle.

Also another point to note are the RSI value towards the top of each peak.
2013 first peak 101
2013 second peak 96
2018 peak 90
2021 first peak 96
2021 current level 61

Maybe worth considering taking profits after 90 Levels on the weekly RSI

27 Eki 2021

İşlem aktif

After reaching ATH, as expected pullback to levels similar to where we trading at the time of posting this chart.

5 Kas 2021

Not

Expecting pullback Mid November

17 Kas 2021

Not

There is blood on the streets and pullback as expected. BTC slightly ahead of model therefore do not expect pullback to extend further and take support on 60k which is also 8 weekly Moving average

18 Kas 2021

Not

Pullback has dropped and starting to match exactly with my model. Bottom should be close

25 Kas 2021

Not

7th week model has predicted correctly, range bound till nov end then bullish december