Bitcoin: Where's The New High?

9 May 2021

While Ethereum has reached for 4K, Bitcoin has made no real progress for weeks. I can only interpret this conflict of price leadership as a red flag in terms of the broader trend. Yes the space is still generally strong and full of froth, but why the absence of buying on Bitcoin? I actually don't care why, all I care about are levels and probabilities.

The fact that Ethereum pushed to such an impressive high (and lured a number of alts with it), while Bitcoin can't even push 60K is a clear sign of relative weakness. Bitcoin is also attempting to establish a lower high off of the 59 to 60K area. This is way too early to judge as a potential beginning of a trend reversal because no major supports have been compromised.

The broader trend at this point is still bullish, while the shorter term trend is range bound. Often consolidations tend to be trend continuation patterns. The 48K to 50K area is the RANGE low support which means probability still favors buying activity in that area UNTIL if breaks.

So the TWO bullish scenarios we would like to see this week: 1) Price retraces to 51,500 AREA and establishes a reversal pattern OR 2) Price tests the 50K to 48K AREA and establishes a reversal. Those are the levels that are most likely to attract bullish order flow. This view is in terms of our LONG only swing trade strategy just to be clear.

IF 48K breaks, that could be the early part of a broader retrace to the 40K area. IF such a move were to unfold, it could take weeks. In that situation, I would expect the majority of alt coins to be affected in a similar way.

In this game, especially over the short term, it is very important to avoid getting stuck in opinions and focusing on maintaining an open mind. That is why we assign probabilities to levels, and then let the market play out. We only look to assume risk when the probability is favorable which is INFREQUENT or RARE. In can take weeks for such an opportunity to develop on the time frame that we follow.

If you are taking multiple trades per week, you are either day trading (if you have a plan) or reacting to market noise (if you don't have a plan).

Markets are highly random and irrational. Perfect example: Non Farm Payrolls comes out much lower than expected, and the S&P rallies. While the technology, promise and potential won't go away for this space, it will eventually just go out of favor for some period of time for no rational reason. This is why RISK must always be considered first. There is no such thing as safe, especially with these coins.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and I hope you found it helpful.