BTC (vs. USD) long-term structural analysis.
Güncellendi
BTC looks like it is presently being rejected by the 11.1k USD VPVR resistance level.
SIDEWAYS TREND CASE: (Altcoins bullish)
However, it has managed to find support above the 200 SMA on the 3 hrly. There's a chance for it to be trapped between being supported by the 200 SMA (or the green rising/thickening Ichicloud) with the 11.1lk USD resistance, going relatively sideways (perhaps setting up a bull pennant) for awhile. If that is the case, expect to see continuation of selected altcoins pumping again -- but will need to examine the BTC.D chart to confirm on this.
BEARISH CASE:
If BTC gets severely rejected by the 11.1k resistance and plunges below ~10.43 USD VPVR level, I'd expect it to drop further to retest the long-term trendline, presently at around 9.7k USD (also about where the 9621 USD VPVR level is at). This will establish a bearish lower-high into the long-term structure, and I will expect that even if BTC finds support and bounces off the 9.7k USD, it will likely retest 10.43k USD and fail.
BULLISH CASE
If BTC manages to pierce above the 11.1k USD, there is then a chance for it to continue to go higher. For a long-term bullish structure to be locked in, BTC will need to set a higher-high by strongly piercing above 12.1k USD and hold. Then I'd expect more increasingly bullish moves for BTC head, and perhaps then even leaving alts in the dust (need to examine BTC.D as well on this point).
See also my previous related (shorter-term) analysis
Shorter term, I am bullish if price continues to hold above the thick orange 200 SMA or the thin 200 VWMA line. Cautious if it plunges below, and bearish if it fails to even find support within the green Ichicloud.
Also, not the lime-green dot, indicating that the gray-DVI like have now pierced above the top of the faded-blue DVI-band, which shows strength in the recent pump.
SIDEWAYS TREND CASE: (Altcoins bullish)
However, it has managed to find support above the 200 SMA on the 3 hrly. There's a chance for it to be trapped between being supported by the 200 SMA (or the green rising/thickening Ichicloud) with the 11.1lk USD resistance, going relatively sideways (perhaps setting up a bull pennant) for awhile. If that is the case, expect to see continuation of selected altcoins pumping again -- but will need to examine the BTC.D chart to confirm on this.
BEARISH CASE:
If BTC gets severely rejected by the 11.1k resistance and plunges below ~10.43 USD VPVR level, I'd expect it to drop further to retest the long-term trendline, presently at around 9.7k USD (also about where the 9621 USD VPVR level is at). This will establish a bearish lower-high into the long-term structure, and I will expect that even if BTC finds support and bounces off the 9.7k USD, it will likely retest 10.43k USD and fail.
BULLISH CASE
If BTC manages to pierce above the 11.1k USD, there is then a chance for it to continue to go higher. For a long-term bullish structure to be locked in, BTC will need to set a higher-high by strongly piercing above 12.1k USD and hold. Then I'd expect more increasingly bullish moves for BTC head, and perhaps then even leaving alts in the dust (need to examine BTC.D as well on this point).
See also my previous related (shorter-term) analysis
Shorter term, I am bullish if price continues to hold above the thick orange 200 SMA or the thin 200 VWMA line. Cautious if it plunges below, and bearish if it fails to even find support within the green Ichicloud.
Also, not the lime-green dot, indicating that the gray-DVI like have now pierced above the top of the faded-blue DVI-band, which shows strength in the recent pump.
Not
Double top. Too many people feeling bullish and getting way too excited now (with calls for 14kUSD, me included). However, if Bitcoin continues to fail breaking out higher above the 11kUSD resistance, it can just as easily drop like a rock back down, as it had climbed up. Need to consider the possibility of it being a bull-trap and organize risk management accordingly.Consider the contrary whenever, I am feeling too bullish/bearish, that is a policy I had adopted which I have found to have effectively further limit the % of my own bad trades.
Still noting the CME gap at the 9.6kUSD level that have not yet been filled -- reason being nothing other than the statistical fact that they tend to get filled ca. 97% of times sooner or later.
Not
If 10400 USD VPVR level fails to hold, expecting price to drop to the white long-term resistance-turned-support level presently at 9600 USD to finally close the CME gap (yet again).Not
BTC correlating with Gold significantly more than SPX in the past weeks:
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