I know I know: Bitcoin jumped almost 5%. The bulls kicked the bears out of the town. We are so back! 100k is next!
If you have read something like this, please unfollow the person immediately.
But let's start with the positive aspects: Yes, the bulls are still here, and it was good to see that the fake bear flag didn't play out (surprise, surprise).
However, there are three reasons why I am convinced that Bitcoin won't go much higher at this point.
1 — Rejected at Key Level
As lovely as the pump was, the bulls lost steam at the crucial level: 57.5k. This level is the bottom trend line of the consolidation channel. It looks like the beats were waiting to punch the bulls in the face.
Therefore, yesterday's price action looks like a retest of the breakout five days ago. So far, the bulls have failed to push through.
2 — No Higher High, Yet
Currently, it looks as if the price wants to reverse at the 57.5k level. If this is the case, Bitcoin has made another lower high, which further seconds its ongoing downtrend.
3 — CME Gap
Finally, we have a CME gap slightly above 54k. Typically, these gaps get filled sooner or later. They act like magnets unless there's strong bullish momentum (which I don't see right now).
Putting It Together
The bulls are alive—that's good. But the chances of going (much) higher at this point are low. A lower high, rejection at the key level and a CME gap that wants to be filled make another dive likely before we finally take off.