Bitcoin Drama Queens Have Emerged To Claim Victory - What?
Nothing like an 11% pullback after a 2 week 25% rally to get the Bitcoin Drama Queens all riled up. You have to be kidding, but unfortunately I am not. I'm often stunned by the ignorant posts in Facebook groups like "TA experts are silent" or the best one from a proposed "expert" titled "quick, cover your tracks, delete all your bullish posts!". Ohh brother nothing like those that were calling for 1500 bitcoin raising the rally flag after an 11% pullback off the high of the initial rally, claiming I told you so! Wait weren't you the same bonehead that was calling for 1500 at 3300? News flash, we are still closer to 5k than 1500 and over the past couple weeks the market is headed up. The ignorance abounds.
Now can we retest the low of 3k? Sure we can. Can we blow through and tap in a new low at 2500-2000 or 1500? Not out of the realm of possibilities. But seriously to think we were going to head in a straight line to 3k or 6k for that matter is ignorance to say the least. It is equally ignorant to think one candle signals a capitulation into the Abyss as well. Pullbacks happen and to be honest, in perspective this was not that major of a pullback, though it looks rather ugly.
From a technical perspective the mid term trend line is still in tact, and the swing gave back about 50% of the overall swing. The question here should be is this simply noise or potentially the start of a swing back to the 3400 area? As I wrote about earlier today, there is simply nothing to do here but let the market play out. If this was whale manipulation, a fat finger trade, stop running or something we are unaware of is insignificant we have yet to take out the previous low and have not entered wave 1 yet.
During these types of market moves it is important to keep calm and not over react, like the many Drama Queens across various platforms are doing now. The weekly low is around 3600 and we are still 200 pts from taking that level out. It is also important to realize that this move happened over the weekend during a period of low liquidity. This makes markets subject to stop running and other manipulative practices. Reacting irrationally because there is a post titled "crypto carnage" or "blood in the streets" is simply opening yourself up to cognitive biases that can control your trading behavior. The best action here is no action and let the market play out.
What we are looking for is how the next candle or two print. This will give better insight into whether this was a big nothing burger, or there is something else pushing the market lower. When the futures market opens tonight we could see a rally back up to retest the 3850-3900 area. We could also see the chart print an inside bar that may be signaling some further selling pressure is in the hopper. To be blunt we simply do not know, and anyone that is claiming otherwise is nothing more than a false profit.
In closing, it is important not to over react to sudden moves like this, that can be simply noise. It is a time to plan, and look at various scenarios and the best way to position if one or the other happens. Making quick draw calls can often leave you standing on the sidelines as the market quickly recovers and pushes higher. Nothing technically here has signaled this bullish swing is over. It is simple, the trend line is still in tact and we have not pushed through our support level. If this happens, and you are in a trade, plan to act. Fortunately our swing trade closed out at 4120. Even so, we would not be pulling the alarm and running out the door if it was still active.
Enjoy your Sunday afternoon and ignore the Drama Queens of Crypto that have suddenly emerged to claim victory, yet are further from their target than they were two weeks ago! Remember a move like this is not uncommon especially with so many pessimists abound. They quickly exit at the first sign of weakness, how the market reacts over the next 24-48 hours will determine if this was real, or a big fat nothing burger. So many are calling for a continuation it almost makes me want to be the contrarian and go long. Of course this is not the time or place to do it, so we will wait!
Now can we retest the low of 3k? Sure we can. Can we blow through and tap in a new low at 2500-2000 or 1500? Not out of the realm of possibilities. But seriously to think we were going to head in a straight line to 3k or 6k for that matter is ignorance to say the least. It is equally ignorant to think one candle signals a capitulation into the Abyss as well. Pullbacks happen and to be honest, in perspective this was not that major of a pullback, though it looks rather ugly.
From a technical perspective the mid term trend line is still in tact, and the swing gave back about 50% of the overall swing. The question here should be is this simply noise or potentially the start of a swing back to the 3400 area? As I wrote about earlier today, there is simply nothing to do here but let the market play out. If this was whale manipulation, a fat finger trade, stop running or something we are unaware of is insignificant we have yet to take out the previous low and have not entered wave 1 yet.
During these types of market moves it is important to keep calm and not over react, like the many Drama Queens across various platforms are doing now. The weekly low is around 3600 and we are still 200 pts from taking that level out. It is also important to realize that this move happened over the weekend during a period of low liquidity. This makes markets subject to stop running and other manipulative practices. Reacting irrationally because there is a post titled "crypto carnage" or "blood in the streets" is simply opening yourself up to cognitive biases that can control your trading behavior. The best action here is no action and let the market play out.
What we are looking for is how the next candle or two print. This will give better insight into whether this was a big nothing burger, or there is something else pushing the market lower. When the futures market opens tonight we could see a rally back up to retest the 3850-3900 area. We could also see the chart print an inside bar that may be signaling some further selling pressure is in the hopper. To be blunt we simply do not know, and anyone that is claiming otherwise is nothing more than a false profit.
In closing, it is important not to over react to sudden moves like this, that can be simply noise. It is a time to plan, and look at various scenarios and the best way to position if one or the other happens. Making quick draw calls can often leave you standing on the sidelines as the market quickly recovers and pushes higher. Nothing technically here has signaled this bullish swing is over. It is simple, the trend line is still in tact and we have not pushed through our support level. If this happens, and you are in a trade, plan to act. Fortunately our swing trade closed out at 4120. Even so, we would not be pulling the alarm and running out the door if it was still active.
Enjoy your Sunday afternoon and ignore the Drama Queens of Crypto that have suddenly emerged to claim victory, yet are further from their target than they were two weeks ago! Remember a move like this is not uncommon especially with so many pessimists abound. They quickly exit at the first sign of weakness, how the market reacts over the next 24-48 hours will determine if this was real, or a big fat nothing burger. So many are calling for a continuation it almost makes me want to be the contrarian and go long. Of course this is not the time or place to do it, so we will wait!
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