2024-05-29 - a daily price action after hour update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
bitcoin
comment: Let’s make this simple. Bullish above big red line around 70600 and uber bearish below 65000 and . Neutral in between. Not rocket science. But how good was my two legged correction from two days ago? Hope you made some.
current market cycle: Trading Range
key levels: 56000 - 74000
bull case: Bulls still dreaming of 100k while market is grinding lower. Below 65000 is 64000 next and if that small bull trend line does not hold, 60000 next. On the daily chart you could make an argument for a bigger two legged correction but bulls would need a really strong rally above 70000 again for that to be the case. Daily 20ema is right at 67000 and above that, bulls are still in control. I expect some more sideways movement between big red and big orange line.
Invalidation is below 65000.
bear case: Bears doing a decent job of rejecting everything above 70000 but they fail to push the market to lower lows. So naturally we are forming triangles and are in breakout mode over the next days. R:R here at 67300 is on the bull side, don’t get bearish at the lows in trading ranges.
Invalidation is above 70600.
short term: Sideways to up - should probably hit 70000 again unless bears make lower lows and we test 65000 next. But betting on the bear breakout below the wedge is low probability.
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
trade of the day: Spike and channel bear day from before EU session. Tricky to trade because it had only one good spike and then just overlapping bars. Second best trade was the short bar 14 at the 1h 20ema.
bitcoin
comment: Let’s make this simple. Bullish above big red line around 70600 and uber bearish below 65000 and . Neutral in between. Not rocket science. But how good was my two legged correction from two days ago? Hope you made some.
current market cycle: Trading Range
key levels: 56000 - 74000
bull case: Bulls still dreaming of 100k while market is grinding lower. Below 65000 is 64000 next and if that small bull trend line does not hold, 60000 next. On the daily chart you could make an argument for a bigger two legged correction but bulls would need a really strong rally above 70000 again for that to be the case. Daily 20ema is right at 67000 and above that, bulls are still in control. I expect some more sideways movement between big red and big orange line.
Invalidation is below 65000.
bear case: Bears doing a decent job of rejecting everything above 70000 but they fail to push the market to lower lows. So naturally we are forming triangles and are in breakout mode over the next days. R:R here at 67300 is on the bull side, don’t get bearish at the lows in trading ranges.
Invalidation is above 70600.
short term: Sideways to up - should probably hit 70000 again unless bears make lower lows and we test 65000 next. But betting on the bear breakout below the wedge is low probability.
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
trade of the day: Spike and channel bear day from before EU session. Tricky to trade because it had only one good spike and then just overlapping bars. Second best trade was the short bar 14 at the 1h 20ema.
