#202423 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - btc
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
bitcoin
Quote from last week:
comment: Last weeks my line in the sand for bulls was around 67250, since market was rejected there 3 times. Bulls finally broke above it with force and bears quickly retested that price and it turned support, which gives the bulls some momentum. Market has not touched the daily 20ema for 11 days, which is very bullish.
I have two paths forward Bitcoin could take imo. Either we are done with the latest small bull trend inside the bigger trading range and W5 ended at 71954 or W1 started around 61000 and the 71954 high was W3 and W5 could lead to a new ath. Answer should be given by Tuesday/Wednesday. Even if it makes a higher high, upside will probably be very limited and odds favor a continuation of the trading range.
comment: Turns out my two-legged correction and 71954 being the high was pretty good and my C target was around 66600 and the low of the week was 66657. 67300 was resistance before and has turned support. We are right at the lower bull trend line and market will either break it on Monday or we will trade back up again. Right now it’s a very tight trading range and I would wait until we see bigger move with follow through.
current market cycle: Tight trading range inside bigger trading range
key levels: 66500 - 70000 small range / 56000 - 74000 (big range)
bull case: 67600 is do or die for bulls. When this bull trend line breaks, their chances of another leg up are becoming very low. If market turns up again with momentum, we can see 70000 again and there market decides if it can try again of reaching higher prices. So far bulls were rejected 5 times above 70000.
Invalidation is below 67000.
bear case: Bears achieved their minimal target last week and rejected bulls again above 70000. Now they need to print lower lows to break the bull channel and make more bulls cover. I do think most bull stops will be below 66000 and they will probably not buy again until we hit 60000 or even 56000. Now comes the important part for the bears and I think Monday/Tuesday will set the direction of the next move. Just very slightly favoring the bears here but they need to get a good close below the daily ema which is directly under us at 67200.
Invalidation is above 69000.
short term: Neutral between 67000 - 69000
medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
chart update: Removed bull channel and bull waves, added descending triangle.
bitcoin
Quote from last week:
comment: Last weeks my line in the sand for bulls was around 67250, since market was rejected there 3 times. Bulls finally broke above it with force and bears quickly retested that price and it turned support, which gives the bulls some momentum. Market has not touched the daily 20ema for 11 days, which is very bullish.
I have two paths forward Bitcoin could take imo. Either we are done with the latest small bull trend inside the bigger trading range and W5 ended at 71954 or W1 started around 61000 and the 71954 high was W3 and W5 could lead to a new ath. Answer should be given by Tuesday/Wednesday. Even if it makes a higher high, upside will probably be very limited and odds favor a continuation of the trading range.
comment: Turns out my two-legged correction and 71954 being the high was pretty good and my C target was around 66600 and the low of the week was 66657. 67300 was resistance before and has turned support. We are right at the lower bull trend line and market will either break it on Monday or we will trade back up again. Right now it’s a very tight trading range and I would wait until we see bigger move with follow through.
current market cycle: Tight trading range inside bigger trading range
key levels: 66500 - 70000 small range / 56000 - 74000 (big range)
bull case: 67600 is do or die for bulls. When this bull trend line breaks, their chances of another leg up are becoming very low. If market turns up again with momentum, we can see 70000 again and there market decides if it can try again of reaching higher prices. So far bulls were rejected 5 times above 70000.
Invalidation is below 67000.
bear case: Bears achieved their minimal target last week and rejected bulls again above 70000. Now they need to print lower lows to break the bull channel and make more bulls cover. I do think most bull stops will be below 66000 and they will probably not buy again until we hit 60000 or even 56000. Now comes the important part for the bears and I think Monday/Tuesday will set the direction of the next move. Just very slightly favoring the bears here but they need to get a good close below the daily ema which is directly under us at 67200.
Invalidation is above 69000.
short term: Neutral between 67000 - 69000
medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
chart update: Removed bull channel and bull waves, added descending triangle.
