Trying a big BTC long now.

5 Tem

BTC ran my last support levels. Did okay on the round trip. Bought low. Trailed stops. Set limits to buy retest of supports - lost retest trades. Evens itself out.

Market went into a hard drop on the break of the supports but I really am starting to feel a lot more bullish now.

Indices look like they've broken resistances. Granted they could still reject but it's hard to say odds favour bears on indices here. I also think the USD bull trend might be running out of stream. I've taking profits on a lot of my USD long positions and have shorts in it now.

With all these pieces of context and us having went from bear bullying (And the way people love to dance on the grave of someone they think is losing would be considered bullying in any other context - isn't a nice thing to do) at the highs to people posting bearish memes again, I'm starting to see more value in positioning as if this move is a bear trap.

If we have the indices breakout, the USD reversal and BTC breaks the high to repeat the trend of previous breakouts, my previous bear forecasts at 70K will entirely fail and flip my bias to strong bull. Can't see a scenario where we make a new high and don't hit 85K. Think it's more likely we see a bit over 100K. From there, it really depends on how USD supports and indices resistances are doing - but in continuation of those trends north of $150,000 is possible.

And now right buying into the possible false breakout gives the potential for massive upside and a papercut if wrong.

Which is basically an inversion of what I was saying at the high. I like to bet on possible false breakouts because if the break succeeds I can get out quickly and if it turns I make 10:1 or more on my money.

Current bet is BTC is making a low around 53,400.

5 Tem

Not

I've had a lot of people show up on my bearish posts telling me how foolish I was being and how I'd miss out big.

I'd just like to note, I've now bought at the same price I took profit on my longs. Shorted while we were high.

Missed not a cent if we rally to 100K.

5 Tem

Not

The extreme FOMO that was being pushed while we were at highs was silly. In a bull breakout there can be a drop like this or there's a retest of the high most of the time.

The actual odds of someone "Missing out big" were fractional.

5 Tem

Not

I'm going to give this a bit of time to see if it settles. We're a bit under the level I'd have for a spike out now. Making my thesis if I am right we must be at essentially the absolute low (Or bear case looks better).

If we stabilize and retake supports a little higher I'll follow up with my pivot on crypto related stocks .

If I like BTC - I love OTM calls on things related.

5 Tem

Not

Fake out level I had determined by a 1.61 extension of the last rally.

We've now returned to this. Good first step for the bull trade.


Took really big positions at the low here so moving half my stop to even and waiting to see what happens.

Starting to think it's likely I'm also looking at call setups in related stocks now.

5 Tem

Not

* We need to retake this 1.61. A retest can happen in a bear move too.

5 Tem

Not

Trailing stops now and setting limits for a retest of the low area.


Signs of these types of corrections possible in equities and USD also. Would be fitting for a new up move to put in a failed new low. If we get that and a new high, we might have the first bullish EWs.

6 Tem

Not

In the simplest terms, the bull cases needs this to be essentially a double bottom with a spike out.


If that happens, then there's a good case to be made for an ABC style correction being in- retesting the uptrend legs.


The failure of the fake out pattern here I think gives a downside bias of not less than 40K area.


As I've described many times over the last 3 months, if there's a false breakout of a new high the rejection of that is liable to be very fierce. Another breakout lower triggers all those warnings and we may see capitulation.

But right now we just see a lot of panic and not a lot of plummet. Sure, we slammed. But we slammed to support. Nothing major happened yet.

6 Tem

Not

Trading an upside reversal from a low can be quite easy if you know how to trade as bear. All you have to do is map out the common bearish continuation patterns. Trail stops when we get close to them and then wait to see if they break.

There's a fairly consistent way a downtrend fails. For a while all rips are shorts. If you can short at the 76 retracement of the last down move, you usually should.


So when we get to these levels if you're long we first trail stops to even (If from low) or to lock in profit a little under current price. Prevent any risk of getting rugged.

Then you can plan a few paths for breaks up or down.

One thing that can happen is the resistances fail and hold as support.


We also may bluff off resistances and not make a new low.


Or it's just business as usual for the bear trend.


Obviously anything can happen - but if you look at 1,000s of instances of lows you'll find very often this happens (You can see the bluff version at the 2023 low in SPX).

Since these are the most common outcomes, I plan my bets around these three things maybe happening.

I do this by setting alerts close to the resistance and when we're there I trail my stop. I trail my stop with the assumption in mind we're either going to trend higher, retest close to the lows or make a new low.

With that assumption in mind, then the only reasonable thing to do is trail stop to the first major uptrend failure level and set limit orders for close to the low.


By doing this I stay in the easy break trade.

I bank profits and pick up new entries into the dip and trade, making a little more.

I bank profits and spend them buying the second time when it breaks. And it's an even result.

-
Which gives a really good overall outlook if we get to this point. If you put yourself into a situation like that a lot of times, good things tend to happen overall.

6 Tem

Not

I mentioned earlier in the thread I was buying back in at the same point where I exited longs on the way up and started to look for zones to short in, stop out and short higher.

This made sense to me because at this point in the rally we were at a huge 76 retracement. Might have been a big top (ETH still has not broken this level).

A second thing is I know good levels retest. Very often.


So I can maybe make good money on a clean reversal. Maybe at least break even if I can catch the high before a retest and then, when all is said and done, most of the time I'm going to have the option to buy at the exact same price later with a lot more info.

On the way up this was a huge bear risk area and there was no way to know if the trend was more likely to go through it. If you look at ETH is slammed 30% off this level - it can be worth thinking about bear stuff at 76s.


Now we have a new high, far supporting a bullish breakout and can buy the retest of the same price. Higher odds, lower risk - identical pay out. Which is better trading. If you do it 100s of times, you have a much better expected edge over chasing highs.

As a side note, using these SR levels also predicts next support is not until 40K if we break here.


So it's certainly not a spot for bulls to be stubborn.

But it is a great level. As explained above, a downtrend can be broken by a break and retest of the 76.

6 Tem

Not

I personally consider buying here at the 76 (Or shorting a 76 on a drop) to be a big error.


I consider it an absolute known major reversals have a higher than average chance of coming from 76s, so you can easily buy high/short low.

And the amount of times we do not retest this level is nominal. I t happens but can't be more than 20% of the time.

If you can get buy the same level 80% of the time and have less chance of getting rugged, I consider it an error to buy the risk risk.

I mean, unless you're going to exit at the high and buy the low again - you literally just take all the risk for no additional reward 80% of the time.

6 Tem

Not

I said a lot of stuff about BTC being a bubble over the last months. Just want to clarify I'm not backpaddling on that one inch.

I believe we're in a broad market bubble and BTC is one of the obvious indicators of that.

We're just at prices where it makes sense for me to speculate the bubble may continue.

Can make a lot of money in a bubble if you don't overstay.

I bought BTC at 7K because I thought it was a bubble. Exited at 50k.

6 Tem

Not

Here's an old BTC chart. We're going to look at the BO up close but here's a perspective chart. We'll be looking at the extreme left of this.


This the 1,000 breakout (Recovery from gox).

In hindsight, we can see the trade here was to buy the spike out when it was about 30% off the high.


Very similar situation to what we have now.


Mapping the break to high was a clear case of a 76 break and retest.


Simple to duplicate.


So that gives us a rough roadmap for a how a breakout might forms and we've also covered above the sequence of trading decisions we make if we're long from lower when we get to the 76 fib.

Drawing extensions from high to low of that bear trap gave good targets. We broke the 1.61 and then went into a huge spike to the 3.20.


This syncs up with my min target of 85K and then a move a bit over 100K if that breaks.


100K has been greatly miscalled by momentum chasers since 2021. Peak 100K calls coming at the highs both time. Most of these cases were mainly influenced by momentum. Which can work and it can be fickle.

But now it's possible to build a well rounded TA case for 100K being "Imminent". By which I mean us having the last substantive bear move in before the 100K run begins.

6 Tem

Not

Further to us being able to build a rounded case, we can now apply good trade plans. Buying highs with momentum is tricky unless you're very good with stop losses or very lucky with timing. Otherwise, you get whipsawed a lot even if right or put your stop "Out the way" and get wicked out at the low if you're right - or nailed anyway if not.

Now we have a way to define a good retest level.

A stop loss close to that to prevent being caught in a rug.

We've a pullback to help us determine targets (Allowing us to actualise RR by banking it).

Much better situation now to entertain bets of 100K break than we had previously.

6 Tem

Not

We can now also make good TA cases for related stocks being at the end of corrections.

MSTR has a legit high RR bull case now. Didn't before. Before it had a legit yank case to ne made on it and promptly dumped 50%.

This may have been ABC of a Elliot.

The recent rally might have been wave 1.

This might be wave 2.

Which means we might be going into wave 3 - and this would be in full agreement with BTC gaining 100% +.


Can support the case for positioning for this right now (Rather than any other time) because we're at 76 fib of what might be wave 1.

Which means wave 3 starting might be imminent.

6 Tem

Not

Let's look at some other coins.

ETH is the obvious warning here for crypto IMO. While BTC was at the high and ETH was rejecting the 76 it made sense to think maybe BTC just overshot and this would reject. This is still possible - but BTC now is at the level where a rejection could fail and retest could succeed.

The bear case for ETH here is clear cut. If the high holds at the 76 and supports break then the bias is strong moves to the lower supports. 50 fib break usually means 23 fib hits in a crash move.

But when we look at all the action over the last months in ETH we can see it's all been pinned inside of the 76 - 50 fibs.


Clearly this is an important zone. Maybe a big break up, maybe a big break down. - and maybe another trip of the range.

So if we might go up a lot and profit. Or down a lot but stop out for a little and maybe it will just range and we can get stops into even - does it make more sense to have a long or short trading bias on ETH at the bottom of the range?

On a "Feels bias" it feels more like a short but on a "Trading bias" where you can expose yourself to the most profit and least risk is taking the long here.

6 Tem

Not

These comments can be broadly duplicated onto any chart that looks like ETH. SOL, for example.


Very high probability we have a big break coming to one side or the other. Simple fib rules give us fair idea of the targets to both sides. Right now buying the bottom of the range to speculate on the upside breakout is the higher RR trade.

If it fails, we'll likely full revert to bear at very close to the same price we are at now on a retest.

6 Tem

Not

Doge.

Four phases of a 76 reversal.

1 - Hit the 76.
2 - Bluff the 76 reversal.
3 - Fail to make a new low
4 - Break previous high, annulling downtrend.


If you've read my long form detailed posts recently about the breaking of a downtrend the entire roadmap plan for doge here should be obvious.

But to put it in the simplest terms, for the bull move to be valid a new low must fail.

We're now incredibly close to that new low.

You can risk a penny to win a buck here.

6 Tem

Not

COIN - just copy and paste all my comments from ETH onto this one.

6 Tem

Not

The point I am looking to make here is we can take many different ways to look at it and come to the same conclusion - we're at the low now or there's a horrific bear break coming.

Lot of people out there speaking in absolutes about one directional bias or another. I don't see any way to have an absolute answer (Ever) and certainly not at this time.

But it does seem obvious a big move will come one way or the other. With well placed stop losses everything massively skews in favour of longs here.

Longs here, disciplined exit plans. Be ready to ride winners with pre-planned trailing stop levels at resistance if they work and be quick to accept you're wrong if it goes against you.

If you look at it from an odds/pay off perspective, very obvious where the asymmetrical trade is here.

6 Tem

Not

I think I've covered about everything now. I'll leave you with the obvious risk areas. Plan now is set alerts on these areas and then execute the trailing stop plan if they hit. Will do updates if we get to these levels.

For this, we're just going to take the same idea and scale it out and out until we're at the full swing.

First fib.


Second fib


Third fib


Full fib.


This provides us with all oof our upside protection plan to prevent winners going bad but also not be exiting while the uptrend persists.

Covers all important decisions to a new high, assuming a low is made here. A new low could change everything. Would make a full reassessment if that happened.

--
This stuff has taken a while to cover. I hope it's useful for you. Not only in this trade but broadly understanding how to plan reversal trades (If you read my mega thread on positioning as a bear you'll see we're doing the exact same thing). These concepts have been very useful to me as a FT trader.

==
If you enjoyed the thread please boost and comment. These things really help to get ideas seen on here.

6 Tem

Not

^ Level one hit.

6 Tem

Not

First failure.

7 Tem

Not

Re-test of first break. Everything up to now has been fair game inside of a bull move.

Looking for support to come in soon now.

7 Tem

Not

Trying to hold support now.

And this is a small expression of the bigger point I made about the big BTC 76.

Why buy on the way up when you can usually buy the same price later after you know it has broken?


No logic to that.

7 Tem

Not

The steps I've taught here are fully fracle. Meaning they work on all timeframes.

So, for example, here we can map out the same set of rules for the breaking of the 1 minute downtrend we have recently.


Knowing where to trail stops and spot breaking using the same ideas.

This is how I learned to trade, largely, forming hypothesis' for price moves based on big charts and then watching small ones over and over again to refine trading rules around my ideas.

7 Tem

Not

The support hold has a lot of work to do yet and it's too early to definitively call it a hold but if we can make this hold then the case for seeing BTC over 100K by the end of the year is good (First time I've made a "100K soon" forecast).

Starting to look at ways to take advantage with this via calls.

Read below idea.

8 Tem

Not

Strategy trailing stop and triggered limit order as explained.

Recently filled for possible failed low.

8 Tem

Not

So far this looks pretty good. I know we've slammed but that's only scary if you don't expect it. A bluff reversal is par for the course here and built into the strategy.

Looking at it more broadly, this looks like EW structure. If a low holds here and the high breaks - very good for the case for the BTC low.

8 Tem

Not

In a less optimistic scenario, if the 76 big 76 level fails as support, we might see a bigger version of this same thing.


Triggering a crash back down to close to the lows. Which is one of the known risks of a false breakout.

I'm ready to adapt for that if it becomes actionable. But the RR stacks better for the bull side until this breaks.

8 Tem

Not

A move to 25K could happen inside of an uptrend. Really would be no surprise to the charts if it did.


I like to "Buy when they cry and sell when they yell" - so it makes sense for me to buy the scary action onto support.

But if that fails, then it's simple bear tactics 101.

53K is critical. Needs to hold here.

8 Tem

Not

Good rip. Stops to even from low entries.

8 Tem

Not

Break above last high will be good now.


If there's a failed new low and then a 76 break that usually produces a strong up move.

8 Tem

Not

Looks really good for the long trade here. Wouldn't like it if we broke under the 50 fib on the above chart again but I think this has a good chance of being a low being made and break setting up.

10 Tem

Not

Bit choppy but we're made the first break.

Stops trailed now. Looking to see what happens at next resis .

10 Tem

Not

Things have went well since the big entry. Price not trading under it at any point.

When things are going well is a good time to think about ways your ideas could fail. Rather than beat your chest like Tarzan, think about ways you can be wrong. That's a smarter way to survive as a trader.

I think this move may continue but we've broken the resistance levels to trigger trailing stops.

If we did go lower, I'd be willing to try one more buy attempt slightly lower.

"Technically" there should not be a lower low here in an uptrend. But practically, BTC is a cornered market and sometimes they like to game stops.

No reason to exit when the uptrend persists. But always be more wary as an idea gets more popular.

10 Tem

Not

Little more concerned the easy part of this might be over. Here's an update on limit orders for long entries if we top out here and make a new low.

10 Tem

Not

Looking more and more like sellers still have the edge.

59K needs to be broken or lower is likely.

10 Tem

Not

Price has lost its nice impulsive structure now.


I feel like the strong bull rip should have continued. While this is weak selling at the moment, I don't think it should be happening at all.

Makes me suspicious.

10 Tem

Not

Using the big retracement fibs we can see they've been the main levels on the way down. Most of the important action coming around them.

We're up off the 61 and testing the 50.

Failure of the trend at 50 gives a bias towards the 76 hitting.

10 Tem

Not

Continued to weaken. We're on supports now. This is the make or break level. Good chance we can make a low here but if this breaks very likely the lower limit order fills.

10 Tem

İşlem aktif

Back in long now.


Could be just a corrective structure here. And I like to buy capitulations to support. Buy when they cry and sell when they yell, and all that.

Could be a good low here. Not a lot of tolerance for lower. Looking for a near insta turn or I'll wait for lower.

10 Tem

Not

Good start. Little inverted head and shoulders on the support.


Stops to under where the head should be now.

Head and shoulders only work about 35% of the time and it's rarely fun to be on the wrong side of a broken one.

If the low is in, I'll ride it - if we break the recent low I'll bail and wait for cheaper prices.

Low looks good. But dead cats often do also.

10 Tem

Not

Of course now we can plan our risk areas to the upside using the 76 retracements.

As discussed earlier in the thread. We can map out the likely bear continuation/fail levels and trail stops at them so as not to get yanked if wrong.

10 Tem

Not

Stops to even now first resis has hit. Freerolling for a bull break.

10 Tem

Not

Okay if I am right here we should not get under the red line again.

All stops there.


We should uptrend now if we're in the reversal pattern I think we are. If not, something else is happening and I'll get out while it's cheap to and decide what I want to do after the next move.

A lot of people on here express their opinion of future market moves with the same level of confidence I say what I'm having for dinner.

Flamboyant styles like that are attention grabbing and engaging and therefore do well on social media - but realistically if you want to survive in trading spend most your time thinking about what happens if you're wrong.

You already know what you'll do if you're right.

10 Tem

Not

When you only trade at good levels, you'll get really good entries when you're right but you'll also often find when your entry is broken it's used as SR on the other side.


Which is why it's important to consider all outcomes. Otherwise price just trends against you. Which sucks.

10 Tem

Not

Anyway - bullish cont levels failed. Not a good look at all. I've set alerts for breaks of the last high but I really would prefer to fill the buy limit on the spike out now.

Will update on a breakout to either side.

For now, the actionable plan is wait for the limits.

10 Tem

Not

I hope I am wrong but from the way indices are rocketing into resistances I have a feeling we might be about to see them go essentially flat for a few months. Maybe 50 - 70 point range.

If so, then this is going to chop land.


Will be no fun at all unless you like to scalp ranges.

Hopefully not. Will be boring trading for a while. Would fit well into context of a false breakout though. Trade flat for a while, give everyone time to get more bearish. Squeeze bulls and make them more likely to tap out to any nominal spike lows. Spend some time building a pool of stop losses under the last lows.

Hopefully not. I dread the thought lol.

But need to be aware it might happen. Otherwise you end up just losing the same trade for 3 months and ignoring the setup when the real one sets up.

10 Tem

Not

Indices are at really important levels now. Big tops or big breaks can be made here. It's possible these happen in smooth moves (And if so the coming trends will be wild) but there's a strong chance indices are;

a) Making a local top in this general area.
b) Made a breakout which means they'll go higher.
3) Liable to range for months before the bear trap.

If those things end up being true, the best thing for many people to do over the coming weeks and months is just not lose money and wait for the better ops.

Day trading strategies can work, so long as they dont look for big breaks.

10 Tem

Not

Forgot the pic.

I think indices might now do this.


Which would be super bullish long term (A year) . Super bearish medium (Months) but mean almost nothing is going to happen in the short term.

The best of the action would be done. This would likely translate to BTC as trading flat where it is.

11 Tem

Not

I really feel like volatility has been given the kiss of death in the indices run up.

There are many things that can happen but inside of a common index recovery we can trade flat for a long time now.

If we do, it'll be a good idea to get used to being patient.

Here's the case for it and also some alt setups (That would be much better to trade).

11 Tem

Not

In the range and bear trap in indices thesis if it translated roughly over BTC I'd expect to see a bit higher before we went lower.

Maybe not in the immediate future. Could be fairly random chop for a while but I'd not expect to see any major bear move starting before testing the bigger 76 and last support.


Could bluff this and that way for a while. Give time for stops to build up over that range and then run them.

Which would then build up the stops under the low and run those also.


Really nice way for the market to clean out most of the traders before making a clean move.

These are not really forecasts, as such, at this point.

Just making plans for choppy action - because I know it would be brutal.

I do have a strong "Feeling" this is going to range up, though. Can't read too much into feelings, they can be changed my literally one candle.

11 Tem

Not

If we got trapped inside of this leg for a while but were heading lower (Be it a dip or break) nasty things like this could happen.


Again, these are not forecasts so much as warnings. Because if you're not ready for that sort of stuff there are so many spots where you are liable to short lows and buy highs.

If trends begin to coin up over the coming days it's best to start to consider we might trade for several weeks or even months inside of a narrow range. It will be whipsawy for breakout traders in that range and either a range based strategy or sitting out would be required.


Absolutely nothing could happen for a while but feel at various times like something big was about to happen.

If you look at the monthly chart it's easy to see how we could easy put in a few months of doji like candles and not change the context of the chart is any significant way.


That would be very annoying to trade if you thought a breakout was coming and by the time the breakout came, you'd not want to trade it.

11 Tem

Not

Case for indices making a low here isn't too bad. Case for BTC at least bouncing here I think is good.

Trying a tight stop buy and intending to move stops to even and see how it plays out if it works.



Indices low here would be very strong and I suspect benefit all risk on trades.

Could be a blood bath if SPX breaks 5550.

11 Tem

Not

Good entry. Stops to just under even now we're at the resistance.

Should not make a new low if my trade is good.

12 Tem

Not

Liking how things are going.

Drop has stalled on the 76.


I know some may not be as interested in other markets as I am, but I always like to view things in context. Both RUT and DJI broke resistances (RUT breaking one it was pinned by all of 2023) and both Nasdaq and SPX capitulated but stopped on 76s.

So at the very worse, a neutral outlook on indices is suitable and the high value trade is long SPX and Nas on supports.

Further to this, USDJPY slammed offf ressis and EURUSD continued higher.

This may add up to risk on rally and weakening of the USD uptrend.

12 Tem

Not

Highly encouraging how stable BTC is with all this indices stuff going on. Looks good for support hold so far.

Stops to under the black line now. Should should be in if this is right.


I think the spikes down in indices were probably the lows also. Case for rallies improving.

So long as lows don't break. All stops need to be under lows. Ugly under lows.

12 Tem

Not

Always following the same theme here with protecting profits when we get good entries.

Once we get to the nearest 76 of a downswing, we do something to protect profits. Respecting this is the highest risk area for a reversal and knowing if we're betting on a trend move it should be able to break resistances and use them as support.

12 Tem

Not

Next profit protect level.

12 Tem

Not

Be careful now.

58400 is a huge area and if we reject from here, longs will be rugged. Very careful here.

Indices also at resistance. If it's going to go bad, it'll go bad here I think.

12 Tem

Not

Taken shorts at resistance. Still have longs on with stops trailing but the indices move feels sus to me.

And BTC is also smack bang on resistance.

Cheap to try the short here and a lot of scope for profit if it breaks.

12 Tem

Not

Yeah - none of that looked bullish.

Indices capitulate into the close and cryptos reject resistance.

14 Tem

Not

Price has slowly creeped up but I really am not liking this anywhere near as much as I expected.

As I mentioned earlier in the thread, this zone was always fair game to ping in a move going lower. Now we're here.


I think this is a stop run. There are probably a lot of people out there who think the breaking of the 1 hour structure here is important (It's not - breaking the 76 is important).

Kinda feel like the rally might be over.

We're retesting the price where I first exited my big shorts from the high - think I'm putting them on again at 60K.

14 Tem

Not

Current BTC chart looks most like this forecast.


No bueno if it is. And indices are more sus now. I can see a viable scenario where the bull move overall continues but the high of the year for indices is made and we drop 10%.

Hard to see how this would not be a 40K or something buy target for BTC.

14 Tem

Not

Open to being proven wrong if we break resistance. But the no brainer long is over now. Lots of ways it can fail.

14 Tem

Not

Edge more with the sellers now I think.

Updated idea below.