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BTCUSD Long term Analysis - $100,000?

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The trading community is going frenzy with their respective versions of BTC speculations. So, Here's mine :)

Long term Analysis:
1. BTC on a clear downtrend from last bull run towards 14k mark.
2. I saw traders speculating 61.8% bullish turn around. I don't believe in extreme precisions on fibonacci levels but my theory about them is I like to think of it as a whale, and I wont see any panic at 61% level. So I will be bearish until fear kicks in, maybe at 78.6% mark, or with a 100% retracement making a double bottom. That's the basic rule of the market, kick in the FEAR, make people sell, REKT them with a bullish move.
3.July 10, 2020 marks the next halving event of Bitcoin. If you aren't aware, halving will increase the production cost of bitcoin to ~6500 mark. As Satoshi Nakamoto himself said "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate towards it's production cost". Bitcoin didn't go below $3150, after the halving it wont go below $6300.
4. Accumulations will happen below 6500 level before halving, after halving, the prices are tend to rise, and as per my estimate, I would say BTC will go to $55,000 mark until next year, and FOMO will get it to $100,000 mark till the end of 2021.

That's all folks.
Not
This is not an investment/trading advice. You solely control your investments and trade.

Feragatname

Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.